RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense AF prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 2.22 to 0.86 on expected goals, with 59.3% for over 2.5 goals in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
RB Bragantino host Chapecoense AF in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A, kicking off Wednesday 28 October at 22:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 2.22 for the hosts and 0.86 for the visitors, a combined 3.08 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
RB Bragantino are a clear favourite at 67%, with the draw back at 20.9%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
RB Bragantino — last 8: D-W-D-L-L-D-L-L (most recent first). That is 11 scored and 13 conceded, 1.38 and 1.63 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 8, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-D-L across 3, 7 scored and 6 conceded.
Chapecoense AF — last 7: L-L-L-D-L-W-L (most recent first). That is 6 scored and 16 conceded, 0.86 and 2.29 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 7, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-D-W-L across 5, 4 scored and 10 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.08 goals in this fixture, above the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A norm of 2.70, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
RB Bragantino carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.22 against 0.86. Both teams to score sits at 52.5%, and over 2.5 goals at 59.3% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| RB Bragantino win | 67% |
| Draw | 20.9% |
| Chapecoense AF win | 12.1% |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 2-0 at 11.3%, 1-1 at 9.9%, 2-1 at 9.7%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 72.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.9 against a league baseline of 3.9. RB Bragantino: only 4 days since the last match.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 71.1% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.22, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. RB Bragantino: only 4 days since the last match.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 58.4% confidence. Expected corners 9.6 against a league baseline of 9.6. RB Bragantino: only 4 days since the last match.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 51.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.50 - 1.21, so the weaker attack still projects 1.21 goals. RB Bragantino: only 4 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 51.2% confidence. Expected total goals 2.72, from 1.50 - 1.21 (Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline 1.40 per side). RB Bragantino: only 4 days since the last match.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 46.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.50 - 1.21 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.40 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. RB Bragantino: only 4 days since the last match.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 46.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.50 - 1.21 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.40 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. RB Bragantino: only 4 days since the last match.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 43.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.22 before the break and 1.49 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. RB Bragantino: only 4 days since the last match.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 35.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.50 - 1.21, which projects a 41% chance of a level score at the break. RB Bragantino: only 4 days since the last match.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-0 — a RB Bragantino win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 11.3%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a RB Bragantino win at 67%, with the draw at 20.9%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
