The NFL returns to Europe on Sunday in Week 10, as the Atlanta Falcons and Bijan Robinson take on the Indianapolis Colts in Berlin.
This game features two of the best running backs in the league in Robinson in Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor, but these teams are in very different spots at this point in the 2025 season.
Indy is coming off a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 9, but it is 7-2 overall and firmly in the mix to finish in first place in the AFC in the 2025 season. Meanwhile, the Falcons have dropped three games in a row and are just 3-5 in the 2025 campaign.
Michael Penix Jr. is coming off arguably his best game of the season, throwing three scores against the New England Patriots, but for the second time this season the Falcons missed a crucial kick in the fourth quarter that cost them a potential win.
Now, Atlanta is set as a sizable underdog in Berlin as the “road” team in this matchup.
Can Indy bounce back and remain in the No. 1 spot in the AFC?
The SI Betting team has been making picks for this international game all week long, and I’ve decided to put some of our favorites all in one spot to help bettors make the most of this game on Sunday morning.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-108) vs. Atlanta Falcons – Iain MacMillan
Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his picks for every game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s backing the Colts to cover as favorites in Berlin:
The Falcons continue to lose games, and I envision them imploding as the season goes on and the players continue to lose faith in the coaching staff that has led them astray with poor game plans and play calling.
This is also a great time to buy back in on the Colts after their baffling Week 9 loss to the Steelers. Indianapolis’s level of play didn’t regress in that game, but it was impossible to overcome six turnovers. Turnovers tend to be a variable that will pop up from time to time for good teams, but likely won’t be a long-lasting issue.
Indianapolis still ranks third in Net Yards per Play (+1.2), third in DVOA, first in EPA per play, and second in Success Rate. Meanwhile, the Falcons have regressed, especially defensively, as the season goes on, and their poor offensive playcalling will keep them from being able to keep pace with the Colts.
Finally, the Falcons’ 29th ranking in opponent rush success rate is going to come back to haunt them against Jonathan Taylor and Co.
Drake London OVER 5.5 Receptions (-140) – Peter Dewey
Falcons receiver Drake London has been on fire as of late for Michael Penix and this offense, racking up double-digit targets in each of his last four games:
Even though he missed Week 8 with an injury, Drake London turned in his best game of the season in Week 9, catching nine of his 14 targets for 118 yards and three touchdowns.
London has been targeted 10 or more times in each of his last four games, reeling in eight, 10, four and nine catches in those games. The Colts’ secondary has been shaky this season, ranking 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed.
While the team did add Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline, I don’t think that stops Michael Penix from looking London’s way early and often. In seven games this season, London has been targeted 77 times (11 per game), catching 47 passes for 587 yards and five scores.
Jonathan Taylor OVER 94.5 Rushing Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey
This is a great matchup for Jonathan Taylor, who is looking to bounce back after one of his worst showings of the season in Week 9:
This is a terrific matchup for Taylor, who has made a fringe MVP case for the 7-2 Colts this season.
Taylor is averaging 99.4 rushing yards per game, picking up over 100 yards in four of his nine games and 94 or more yards in five of them. While he hasn’t cleared this prop as much as you’d expect, he is taking on a weak Atlanta run defense on Sunday.
The Falcons rank 28th in the NFL in EPA/Rush this season, and they’ve allowed 4.4 yards per carry and 995 rushing yards through eight games.
Taylor is going to be a work horse once again in Week 10, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Colts lean on him a little more after Daniel Jones had a high-turnover showing in Week 9.
Michael Pittman Anytime TD (+160) – Ryan Gilbert
If you’re looking for an anytime touchdown scorer, SI Betting’s Ryan Gilbert is eyeing a Colts receiver to hit pay dirt in Berlin:
Michael Pittman leads Colts wide receivers with 52 catches on 68 targets for 561 yards and six touchdowns this season. He scored in two straight games before being held out of the end zone last week, and also had a three-game streak earlier this season.
The Falcons have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five games this season, including two to Drake Maye and four to Tua Tagovailoa in recent weeks.
Stefon Diggs and DeMario Douglas both had touchdown catches last week. Pittman should be able to haul one in and we’re getting a decent price of +160.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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