Manchester City vs Bayer Leverkusen Match Preview: UEFA Champions League 2024/25 League Phase
Match Details
Competition: UEFA Champions League 2024/25 – League Phase (Matchday 5)
Date: Tuesday, November 26, 2025
Kick-Off: 20:00 GMT (21:00 CET)
Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
Referee: João Pinheiro (Portugal)
VAR: Tiago Martins (Portugal)
TV Coverage: TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate, Amazon Prime Video (UK)
Current Standings and Context
This Champions League encounter represents a crucial juncture for both teams as they navigate the new league phase format. Manchester City sit fourth in the 36-team standings with 10 points from four matches, seeking to secure automatic qualification to the Round of 16 by finishing in the top eight positions.
Bayer Leverkusen occupy 21st place with just five points, having endured a difficult European campaign following their historic invincible Bundesliga-winning season. The German champions desperately need points to remain in contention for the knockout play-off places, with only the top 24 teams progressing.
Victory for Manchester City, combined with just one more point in their remaining fixtures, would guarantee progression to the knockout rounds. For Leverkusen, this match at the Etihad represents one of their most challenging assignments yet, but also an opportunity to prove they belong among Europe’s elite.
Team Form Analysis
Manchester City – Seeking Redemption After Newcastle Setback
Pep Guardiola’s side arrive at this fixture looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2-1 Premier League defeat at Newcastle United on Saturday. Harvey Barnes’ double condemned City to their latest setback in what has been an inconsistent domestic campaign by their lofty standards.
Despite the weekend loss, City’s Champions League form has been impressive. They remain unbeaten in the competition with wins over Napoli, Villarreal and Borussia Dortmund, alongside a 2-2 draw in Monaco where they conceded a penalty in stoppage time. The Citizens have not trailed at any point during this season’s Champions League and have led for more than 62% of their total match time.
In the Premier League, Manchester City currently sit second in the table after 12 matches, though they could find themselves seven points behind leaders Arsenal if the Gunners defeat Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday. The Sky Blues have been overly dependent on Erling Haaland’s goalscoring prowess this season, though positive signs emerged from Saturday’s match despite the defeat.
Recent Form (Last 5 matches across all competitions):
W-W-D-L-W
Home Record – The Etihad Fortress:
Manchester City’s home record in the Champions League is nothing short of exceptional. They have won eight consecutive matches at the Etihad Stadium without conceding a defeat since 2024, maintaining their status as one of Europe’s most formidable home teams.
More impressively, City have won 13 consecutive Champions League home matches against German opposition, scoring 49 goals while conceding just 13. The last German team to avoid defeat at the Etihad was Guardiola’s own Bayern Munich back in 2013.
The hosts have not lost a Champions League group or league-phase match at home in 23 straight games, underlining the monumental task facing Leverkusen.
Bayer Leverkusen – Rebuilding Under New Management
The 2023-24 Bundesliga Invincibles have undergone significant transition since Xabi Alonso’s departure to Real Madrid at season’s end. After an ill-fated appointment of Erik ten Hag, who lasted just over two months before dismissal in September, Kasper Hjulmand has steadied the ship.
The former Denmark national team boss has overseen an impressive turnaround in form. Leverkusen have won seven of their last nine matches across all competitions, with both losses coming against European champions Paris Saint-Germain and domestic powerhouse Bayern Munich.
Domestically, Die Werkself currently sit third in the Bundesliga table after a commanding 3-1 victory at Wolfsburg on Saturday evening. Before the international break, they demolished Heidenheim 6-0, showcasing the attacking quality that carried them to an unbeaten league campaign last season. They thrashed Heidenheim again 5-2 over the weekend.
However, their Champions League campaign has been turbulent. After opening with draws against Copenhagen and PSV, Leverkusen suffered a humiliating 7-2 home defeat to PSG on Matchday 3. They responded with character, securing their first Champions League win of the season with a 1-0 victory at Benfica through Patrick Schick’s decisive strike.
Recent Form (Last 5 matches across all competitions):
W-W-W-L-W
Away Record:
Leverkusen’s away form has been their Achilles heel in the Champions League this season. More concerningly, their historical record in England makes for sobering reading: they have lost eight of their ten Champions League away games on English soil, with their only victory coming against Tottenham Hotspur in 2016. Their most recent visit to England ended in a comprehensive 4-0 defeat at Liverpool last season.
Despite these statistics, Leverkusen’s recent European record overall shows resilience. They have lost only three of their last 20 UEFA group or league-phase matches, and victory at the Etihad would deliver their 50th triumph in Europe’s premier club competition.
Head-to-Head Record
This will be the first competitive meeting between Manchester City and Bayer Leverkusen, marking a historic occasion for both clubs. While they have never faced each other in UEFA competition, both teams have extensive experience against opposition from each other’s nations.
Manchester City’s Record vs German Teams:
The Citizens boast an exceptional recent record against Bundesliga opposition. They have lost only one of their last 24 Champions League matches against German teams, suffering defeat at RB Leipzig in December 2021. During this remarkable run, City have scored 67 goals across those fixtures.
Their home dominance has been even more pronounced, with 13 consecutive Champions League victories at the Etihad against German sides, scoring 49 goals and conceding 13.
Bayer Leverkusen’s Record in England:
The German champions face an uphill battle based on historical precedent. Leverkusen have won just one of ten Champions League away matches in England, their sole victory coming at Tottenham in 2016. Recent visits have proven particularly difficult, including heavy defeats at Liverpool and Arsenal.
This will be Bayer Leverkusen’s 39th match against German opposition for Manchester City, while Leverkusen will become the eighth different German team City have faced in European competition.
Tactical Analysis
Manchester City’s Approach
Pep Guardiola is expected to deploy his trademark 4-1-4-1 formation that has provided stability throughout the group stage. The system emphasizes control, technical precision, and suffocating possession, characteristics that have defined Guardiola’s tenure at the Etihad.
City rank first in this season’s Champions League for successful passes with 2,511 attempts, boasting an exceptional 91.9% pass accuracy. They also lead the competition in 10+ pass sequences in open play with 95 sequences and 6.2 passes per sequence.
Remarkably, Manchester City are the only team that hasn’t conceded a single opposition fast break in the current edition, showcasing their exceptional defensive organization and pressing structure.
Key Tactical Elements:
- Dominant possession and territorial control
- High defensive line with aggressive pressing
- Creative rotation in the final third
- Exploiting half-spaces through inverted wingers
- Controlled build-up play from deep positions
The absence of Mateo Kovačić forces tactical adjustments in midfield, with Tijjani Reijnders and Phil Foden expected to provide creativity and control alongside Nico González in the deeper role.
Leverkusen’s Game Plan
Kasper Hjulmand will likely adopt a 3-4-2-1 formation designed to provide defensive solidity while maintaining counter-attacking threat. The Danish coach has implemented a more pragmatic approach compared to Alonso’s expansive style, prioritizing defensive organization away from home.
Leverkusen’s strength lies in their ability to transition quickly and exploit space in behind opposition defenses. With technical quality throughout the squad, they can hurt teams on the break if given opportunities.
Key Tactical Elements:
- Compact defensive shape with three center-backs
- Wing-backs providing width in transition
- Quick vertical passes to bypass pressing
- Utilizing Patrick Schick’s physical presence
- Set-piece opportunities as scoring chances
The absence of Robert Andrich through suspension weakens their midfield, but Aleix García’s technical quality should help maintain composure under pressure. Alejandro Grimaldo’s attacking instincts from left wing-back will be crucial in creating chances.
Team News and Injuries
Manchester City – Key Midfield Absences
Manchester City face a significant challenge in midfield with two crucial absences. Rodri, the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner, remains sidelined with a hamstring problem, though Guardiola indicated his return is imminent without providing a specific timeframe.
More problematically, Mateo Kovačić will be out for the foreseeable future after undergoing surgery on a calcified ankle issue, an injury expected to sideline him for several months.
Beyond these midfield concerns, Guardiola confirmed the rest of his squad is fit and available, providing welcome depth across all positions.
Confirmed Absences:
- Rodri (hamstring)
- Mateo Kovačić (ankle – surgery)
- Kalvin Phillips (registration status)
Disciplinary Watch:
Ismail Jakobs is one booking away from suspension and would miss the trip to Monaco if cautioned, though this reference appears to be an error as Jakobs plays for Monaco, not City.
Bayer Leverkusen – Multiple Absences
The German champions travel to Manchester with several notable absences affecting their squad depth. Robert Andrich serves a suspension following his red card, robbing Leverkusen of their defensive midfield anchor.
Confirmed Absences:
- Robert Andrich (suspended – red card)
- Jonas Hofmann (ineligible – Champions League registration)
- Exequiel Palacios (ineligible – Champions League registration)
- Alejo Sarco (ineligible – Champions League registration)
- Equi Fernández (ligament injury)
- Axel Tape (match fitness concerns)
Fitness Concerns:
- Alejandro Grimaldo (muscular problem – doubtful)
- Lucas Vázquez (muscular problem – doubtful)
The absence of Andrich particularly weakens Leverkusen’s defensive structure, while Grimaldo’s potential unavailability would rob them of one of their most creative outlets.
Predicted Lineups
Manchester City (4-1-4-1):
Goalkeeper: Gianluigi Donnarumma
Defense: Matheus Nunes, John Stones, Joško Gvardiol, Nico O’Reilly
Defensive Midfield: Nico González
Midfield: Savinho, Tijjani Reijnders, Phil Foden, Jérémy Doku
Striker: Erling Haaland
Substitutes: Ederson, Kyle Walker, Nathan Aké, Ilkay Gündoğan, Bernardo Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, Omar Marmoush, Oscar Bobb
Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1):
Goalkeeper: Mark Flekken
Defense: Jarell Quansah, Loïc Badé, Edmond Tapsoba
Wing-Backs: Arthur Mendonça, Jeanuel Belocian
Midfield: Aleix García, Ibrahim Maza
Attacking Midfield: Ernest Poku, Claudio Echeverri
Striker: Christian Kofane
Substitutes: Matěj Kovář, Jonathan Tah, Granit Xhaka, Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Patrick Schick, Victor Boniface
Key Players to Watch
Manchester City
Erling Haaland: The Norwegian striker remains City’s most potent weapon despite Saturday’s frustrating performance at Newcastle. Haaland has scored in each of his last five Champions League matches and also netted four times against Leverkusen during his Borussia Dortmund days, giving him intimate knowledge of their defensive vulnerabilities.
The 24-year-old has been overly relied upon this season, but his physical presence, intelligent movement, and clinical finishing make him the obvious danger man for Guardiola’s side.
Phil Foden: The English playmaker provides creativity, vision and technical quality in the final third. His ability to find space between the lines and deliver precise passes could unlock Leverkusen’s defensive block.
Tijjani Reijnders: The Dutch midfielder brings energy, intelligence and box-to-box quality to City’s engine room. With Kovačić sidelined, Reijnders’ contributions become even more crucial in controlling the tempo and providing defensive cover.
Jérémy Doku: The Belgian winger offers pace, directness and unpredictability down the flanks. His one-on-one ability against full-backs makes him a constant threat, particularly against Leverkusen’s wing-back system.
Bayer Leverkusen
Patrick Schick: The Czech striker scored the winner against Benfica and has seven goals across all competitions this season. His physical presence, aerial ability and clinical finishing make him Leverkusen’s primary goal threat. Schick enjoys battling with defenders and is confident in the air, making him dangerous from set-pieces in both boxes.
Alejandro Grimaldo: The Spanish wing-back has been exceptional this season with seven goals and three assists. His license to charge forward from defense provides Leverkusen with width and creativity. If fit, Grimaldo’s crossing quality and set-piece delivery will be vital.
Claudio Echeverri: The Argentine attacking midfielder on loan from Manchester City adds an intriguing subplot to this fixture. The 19-year-old talent could face his parent club, though tensions between Leverkusen and City regarding his loan situation add complexity to his involvement.
Florian Wirtz: The German wonderkid remains Leverkusen’s most talented player. His vision, technical ability and goal threat make him dangerous whenever he’s on the pitch. Wirtz’s creativity could unlock City’s defense with moments of individual brilliance.
Statistical Insights
Manchester City Statistics
- 10 points from four Champions League matches (3W, 1D)
- Scored 10 goals in four UEFA Champions League matches this season
- Have not trailed at any point in this season’s competition
- Rank first in the Champions League for successful passes (2,511)
- Boast 91.9% pass accuracy, highest in the competition
- Only team not to concede a single opposition fast break
- Won 13 consecutive Champions League home matches against German opposition
- 23-match unbeaten run in Champions League group/league-phase home matches
Bayer Leverkusen Statistics
- 5 points from four Champions League matches (1W, 2D, 1L)
- Conceded 10 goals in four Champions League matches (2.5 per game)
- Won seven of their last nine matches across all competitions
- Currently third in the Bundesliga table
- Lost only three of their last 20 UEFA group/league-phase matches
- One victory away from their 50th European Cup win
- Won just one of ten Champions League away matches in England
Historical Context
- This marks Pep Guardiola’s 100th Champions League match in charge of Manchester City
- City have never lost at home to German opposition in the Champions League under Guardiola
- Leverkusen seeking first Champions League away win in England since 2016
Match Predictions and Betting Insights
Expert Analysis
The statistics overwhelmingly favor Manchester City in this encounter. Their exceptional home record, recent dominance against German opposition, and Leverkusen’s poor away record in England all point toward a comfortable home victory.
Predictive algorithms give Manchester City a 78% chance of victory, with bookmakers offering best odds of 1.22 for a City win. This reflects the significant gulf in class, form, and historical precedent between the two sides.
However, Leverkusen’s recent resurgence under Hjulmand cannot be dismissed. They have proven capable of competing with elite opposition, and their quick transitions could exploit any defensive lapses from City, particularly without Rodri’s defensive shielding.
Key Factors
- Home Fortress: City’s incredible record at the Etihad, especially against German teams, provides overwhelming advantage
- Historical Precedent: Leverkusen’s abysmal away record in England suggests vulnerability
- Midfield Absences: Missing Rodri and Kovačić weakens City’s control, while Andrich’s suspension hurts Leverkusen’s defensive structure
- Tactical Battle: Guardiola’s possession-based dominance versus Hjulmand’s counter-attacking pragmatism
- Haaland Factor: The Norwegian’s familiarity with Leverkusen from his Dortmund days gives him psychological advantage
Goals and Scoring Patterns
There’s an 88% chance of this match having at least two goals (Over 1.5 goals), with a 72% probability of three or more goals (Over 2.5 goals). Both teams have shown attacking intent this season, and City’s home dominance suggests multiple scoring opportunities.
There is a 55% chance of both teams scoring within the 90 minutes, reflecting Leverkusen’s counter-attacking threat despite their defensive struggles. City to win to nil is priced at 2.20, with a 39% probability.
A Manchester City victory with a -1.5 goals handicap offers value at 1.68 odds, suggesting confidence in a comfortable margin of victory.
Score Prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen
Despite Leverkusen’s recent improvement, Manchester City’s quality, home advantage, and historical dominance against German opposition should prove decisive. Haaland will lead the attacking charge, supported by creative talents like Foden, Doku and Reijnders, overwhelming Leverkusen’s defensive organization.
Leverkusen will likely score through a counter-attacking opportunity or set-piece situation, with Schick, Grimaldo or Wirtz the most probable scorers. Patrick Schick’s physical presence and clinical finishing gives them a genuine goal threat, while Grimaldo’s delivery from set-pieces provides another avenue to goal.
However, City’s relentless pressure and superior quality in the final third will ultimately secure a comfortable victory. Guardiola’s tactical mastery combined with the Etihad atmosphere will prove too much for the German visitors, delivering three crucial points that edge City closer to automatic qualification for the Round of 16.
The hosts need this victory to maintain their push for a top-eight finish, and their home crowd will provide the electric, supportive atmosphere that has become synonymous with Champions League nights at the Etihad Stadium. Expect goals, attacking football, and ultimately, a City victory that maintains their perfect home record in this season’s competition.
Final Verdict
Winner: Manchester City
This match represents a landmark occasion for Pep Guardiola, marking his 100th Champions League match in charge of Manchester City. The Catalan manager will want to celebrate this milestone with a commanding performance that showcases his team’s European credentials.
While Leverkusen deserve immense credit for their resurgence under Kasper Hjulmand and their historic invincible Bundesliga campaign last season, the combination of City’s home fortress, recent form against German teams, and Leverkusen’s poor away record in England makes the hosts overwhelming favorites.
The absence of Rodri and Kovačić represents City’s primary concern, potentially allowing Leverkusen to exploit space in midfield transitions. However, the quality of replacements like Reijnders and González, combined with Guardiola’s tactical flexibility, should minimize these vulnerabilities.
Leverkusen will adopt a cautious approach, sitting deep and looking to hit City on the counter through Schick, Wirtz and Poku. Their set-piece threat, particularly with Grimaldo’s delivery and Schick’s aerial prowess, provides a genuine route to goal. The German champions have proven they can trouble elite opposition, evidenced by their victory at Benfica.
However, Manchester City’s relentless attacking quality, exceptional home record, and desperate need for points to secure automatic qualification makes them clear favorites. The Etihad faithful will create an intimidating atmosphere, providing the psychological edge that has proven decisive in countless European nights.
Haaland’s familiarity with Leverkusen from his Dortmund days adds an intriguing subplot, as the Norwegian striker knows exactly how to exploit their defensive weaknesses. His combination of pace, power and clinical finishing should trouble Leverkusen’s back three throughout the 90 minutes.
Final Prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen
The Sky Blues will secure a vital victory, extending their remarkable home record and moving closer to automatic qualification for the Round of 16. Leverkusen will score but ultimately leave Manchester empty-handed, their Champions League struggles continuing at one of Europe’s most formidable venues. Guardiola’s 100th Champions League match at City will be celebrated with three points and another impressive European display.
