Olympiacos vs Real Madrid Match Preview – UEFA Champions League 2025/26

Date: Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Kick-off: 20:00 GMT (22:00 Local Time)
Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus, Greece
Competition: UEFA Champions League – League Phase (Matchday 5)

Match Overview

European football royalty descends upon the historic Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium as Real Madrid seek to make history against Olympiacos in a crucial Champions League encounter. The Spanish giants have never won on Greek soil against the Piraeus outfit across their eight previous meetings, making Wednesday’s clash a landmark opportunity for Los Blancos to break their away jinx while consolidating their position in the top eight of the league phase standings.

For Olympiacos, this represents a vital opportunity to reignite their qualification hopes. Sitting precariously in 31st position with just two points from four matches, Jose Luis Mendilibar’s side need victories to have any realistic chance of reaching the knockout phase play-offs. Meanwhile, Real Madrid, positioned comfortably in seventh place with nine points, can virtually secure their progression with a positive result in this intimidating atmosphere.

Current Form Analysis

Olympiacos Form

Champions League: D-L-L-D (2 points from 4 matches)
Overall: W-W-W-D-W-W (Last 6 matches)
Home Form: Unbeaten in 33 consecutive home matches

The Greek champions present a fascinating paradox. While they’ve struggled mightily in European competition this season with draws against Pafos and PSV Eindhoven alongside defeats to Arsenal and Barcelona, their domestic dominance remains unquestioned. Currently leading the Greek Super League with 28 points from 11 matches, they sit two points clear of PAOK and have won five consecutive league fixtures.

Recent domestic results showcase their attacking prowess, having netted 20 goals in their last 10 matches while conceding just 13. Their 3-0 victory over Atromitos in their last outing demonstrated the clinical finishing that has deserted them on the continental stage. The home fortress mentality at the Karaiskakis remains intact, with their remarkable 33-match unbeaten run providing genuine cause for optimism.

Real Madrid Form

Champions League: W-W-W-L (9 points from 4 matches)
La Liga: W-D-D (Last 3 matches)
Overall Form: Mixed – struggling for consistency

The reigning champions enter this fixture in an uncharacteristic period of uncertainty. Since their impressive 4-0 demolition of Valencia on November 2nd, Real Madrid have failed to secure victory in their subsequent three matches. A 1-0 Champions League defeat to Liverpool at Anfield was followed by disappointing goalless draws against Rayo Vallecano and a dramatic 2-2 comeback against Elche, where Jude Bellingham rescued a point in the 87th minute.

Despite these recent setbacks, Madrid remain top of La Liga with 31 points from 12 matches, though their advantage has been trimmed to just one point ahead of Barcelona. In Europe, victories over Marseille, Kairat Almaty, and Juventus have them well-positioned for automatic qualification to the round of 16, but Xabi Alonso’s side will be desperate to rediscover their rhythm.

Head-to-Head Record

Total Meetings: 8
Real Madrid Wins: 4
Draws: 3
Olympiacos Wins: 1
Real Madrid Goals: 18
Olympiacos Goals: 9

Key Historical Context:

• All four Real Madrid victories have come at the Santiago Bernabéu
• Olympiacos’ sole victory: 2-1 home win in December 2005
• Last meeting: 0-0 draw in Greece (November 2007)
• Three of four meetings in Piraeus have ended in draws
• Raúl leads all scorers in this fixture with four goals

The historical narrative provides genuine intrigue. Real Madrid have dominated this fixture overall, outscoring Olympiacos by a 2:1 ratio across their eight encounters. However, the Santiago Bernabéu has been the stage for all Los Blancos’ triumphs, while Greek soil has proven inhospitable to the Spanish giants. The visitors have managed just one victory alongside three draws and one defeat in Piraeus, making Wednesday’s assignment particularly challenging given Olympiacos’ current 33-match home unbeaten streak.

Team News and Injuries

Olympiacos

Definitely Out:

• Alexandros Paschalakis (Goalkeeper) – Injury
• Konstantinos Angelakis – Injury

Key Players Available:

• Ayoub El Kaabi (10 goals in 16 appearances this season) – Leading the attack
• Daniel Podence (Former Wolves winger) – Creative outlet
• Dani García (Midfielder) – One booking from suspension but expected to start

Jose Luis Mendilibar can otherwise field a full-strength side with no significant injury concerns beyond the two confirmed absentees. The experienced García provides vital know-how against Spanish opposition following his La Liga career with Real Sociedad, Eibar, and Athletic Bilbao. El Kaabi’s exceptional scoring rate makes him the primary goal threat, while Podence offers creativity and unpredictability in wide areas.

Real Madrid

Definitely Out:

• Dani Carvajal (Knee) – Long-term absence
• Eder Militão (Groin) – Significant defensive blow
• Franco Mastantuono (Groin)

Doubtful:

• Antonio Rüdiger (Muscle) – Fitness test required
• Aurélien Tchouaméni (Hamstring) – Assessment needed
• David Alaba (Muscle) – Continuing rehabilitation

Expected Changes: Xabi Alonso is set to rotate his squad following the Elche draw, with Vinícius Júnior, Federico Valverde, and Eduardo Camavinga all expected to return to the starting XI. The Madrid boss may deploy a 4-3-1-2 formation with Bellingham operating behind a front two of Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius. Trent Alexander-Arnold could feature again at right-back, while Dean Huijsen and Raúl Asencio are candidates to partner in central defense if Rüdiger fails his fitness test.

The absence of Militão represents a significant concern, as the Brazilian has been one of Europe’s most consistent center-backs this season. His loss leaves Madrid potentially vulnerable against Olympiacos’ direct attacking style.

Tactical Analysis

Olympiacos’ Game Plan

Mendilibar’s Olympiacos typically deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation that emphasizes possession and territorial control. With an average of 59% possession in domestic competition, they prefer to dictate tempo through patient build-up play and short passing combinations (87% pass accuracy). However, their European struggles suggest difficulty translating this approach against elite opposition.

The key tactical question revolves around whether Olympiacos adopt a more pragmatic approach or maintain their possession-based principles. Their heavy defeat to Barcelona (6-1) demonstrated the risks of an open approach against top-tier opponents, yet their goalless draws against Pafos and PSV suggest defensive caution hasn’t yielded dividends either.

Expect Olympiacos to:

• Press aggressively in the opening stages to unsettle Madrid’s rhythm
• Utilize the passionate home crowd to create an intimidating atmosphere
• Target Madrid’s inexperienced defensive pairing through direct running
• Look for El Kaabi to exploit aerial opportunities from set pieces
• Deploy Podence’s pace on the counter-attack

Real Madrid’s Approach

Xabi Alonso faces mounting pressure to restore Madrid’s fluency after recent disappointing performances. The team has struggled when facing high-energy pressing, as evidenced by difficulties against both Liverpool and Rayo Vallecano. The Spanish tactician must find solutions to unlock his wealth of attacking talent, particularly the Güler-Mbappé combination that has produced Madrid’s most incisive moments.

Madrid’s recent draws have exposed their over-reliance on individual brilliance rather than cohesive tactical patterns. Against Olympiacos’ expected aggressive approach, Los Blancos will need improved structure and intensity to control proceedings.

Expected Madrid tactics:

• 4-3-1-2 formation with Bellingham in the creative role
• Alexander-Arnold providing width and quality crosses from right-back
• Quick transitions exploiting Olympiacos’ high defensive line
• Mbappé’s pace targeting spaces behind Olympiacos’ center-backs
• Maintain defensive compactness to limit counter-attacking opportunities

Key Battles

Ayoub El Kaabi vs Real Madrid’s Defense

El Kaabi’s outstanding form (10 goals in 16 appearances) makes him Olympiacos’ primary weapon. The 32-year-old striker thrives on aerial balls and physical duels. With Militão absent and potential inexperience at center-back, Madrid’s defensive vulnerability could be exposed. Huijsen and Asencio must demonstrate maturity and positioning to contain the Moroccan international.

Kylian Mbappé vs Olympiacos’ Backline

La Liga’s leading scorer with 13 goals from 12 appearances, Mbappé has been sensational despite Madrid’s recent wobbles. His clinical finishing (13 goals from an xG of 5.32) and electric pace make him perpetually dangerous. Against a 35-year-old Pedro Bigas-led defense, Mbappé’s movement and acceleration should create numerous opportunities. His partnership with Vinícius will be crucial to Madrid’s offensive output.

Midfield Control: García & Mouzakitis vs Camavinga & Valverde

The midfield battle will likely determine the match outcome. Olympiacos need Dani García’s experience and Christos Mouzakitis’ energy to disrupt Madrid’s rhythm and win second balls. For Los Blancos, Camavinga’s defensive intelligence and Valverde’s box-to-box dynamism must dominate possession and transition play. Whichever pair controls the tempo will provide their attackers with the platform to decide the contest.

Statistical Insights

Scoring Patterns

Olympiacos:

• Home matches: 100% over 1.5 goals, 60% over 2.5 goals
• Averaging 2.0 goals scored per match (last 10 games)
• Four clean sheets in last 10 matches
• Strong second-half performers domestically

Real Madrid:

• 67% of La Liga matches have exceeded 2.5 goals (8 of 12)
• Averaging 2.2 goals per match in all competitions
• Six clean sheets in 12 La Liga matches
• Recent Champions League average: 1.0 goals per game (last 2 matches)

Defensive Metrics

Olympiacos:

• Conceding 1.3 goals per game (last 10 matches)
• Struggled against elite European opposition (6 conceded to Barcelona)
• Home defensive record generally solid
• Set-piece vulnerability against taller opponents

Real Madrid:

• Conceding less than 1 goal per game in La Liga (10 in 12 matches)
• Without Militão, defensive organization uncertain
• Recent struggles maintaining clean sheets
• Vulnerable when facing high-pressing systems

Betting Insights and Predictions

Match Outcome

The odds favor Real Madrid, but several factors suggest value elsewhere. Olympiacos’ 33-match home unbeaten run and Real Madrid’s recent difficulties—including never winning in Piraeus—create genuine uncertainty. Madrid’s superior quality and European experience should prevail, but this fixture has “draw” written across its recent history.

The absence of Militão and potential fatigue from Madrid’s fixture congestion could be decisive. Olympiacos, desperate for points and buoyed by home support, will make this extremely uncomfortable for the visitors.

Goals Market

Despite both teams’ attacking capabilities, recent Champions League encounters suggest a moderate-scoring affair. Both Olympiacos home fixtures produced under 2.5 goals (0-0 vs Pafos, 1-1 vs PSV). Madrid’s last two Champions League matches averaged just 1.0 goals per game. The tactical caution from both sides—Madrid seeking to protect their qualification position, Olympiacos desperate to avoid defeat—points toward a tight, cagey contest.

Under 2.5 goals appears the value selection, particularly given Madrid’s recent defensive improvement (10 conceded in 12 La Liga matches) and Olympiacos’ tendency toward low-scoring European fixtures this season.

Player Specials

Kylian Mbappé remains the standout selection for anytime goalscorer. His exceptional conversion rate and clinical finishing make him a constant threat regardless of team form. Despite Madrid’s recent struggles, Mbappé’s individual brilliance has been unwavering (13 goals in 12 La Liga appearances). At moderate odds, backing the French superstar represents solid value.

Correct Score Prediction

Olympiacos 1-2 Real Madrid

This scoreline reflects several key factors: Real Madrid’s historical dominance in the fixture, their superior individual quality, and the necessity for three points to maintain top-eight aspirations. However, Olympiacos’ home fortress reputation and recent domestic form warrant respect—they will not capitulate easily.

Expect a tightly contested first half with few clear chances as both sides feel each other out. Real Madrid’s greater experience and quality in decisive moments should shine through in the second period. An Olympiacos goal—likely from El Kaabi—will test Los Blancos’ resolve, but Mbappé’s clinical edge and Vinícius’ match-winning ability should secure a narrow but historic away victory.

The match represents a stern examination of both teams’ credentials: Can Olympiacos upset the odds on home soil? Can Real Madrid overcome their Greek demons and rediscover winning momentum? Quality should ultimately prevail, but not without genuine resistance from the Piraeus faithful.

Final Verdict

Prediction: Olympiacos 1-2 Real Madrid

Real Madrid will secure a historic first victory in Piraeus, but they’ll earn it the hard way. Xabi Alonso’s men possess superior quality throughout their squad, and the return of Vinícius, Valverde, and Camavinga should provide the tactical balance absent in recent performances. Kylian Mbappé’s extraordinary finishing ability gives Madrid a decisive edge, while Jude Bellingham’s late-game heroics against Elche demonstrate their mental resilience.

However, Olympiacos’ 33-match home unbeaten run isn’t built on fortune alone. Their passionate support creates a genuinely hostile environment, and their domestic form indicates a team capable of troubling any opponent. Ayoub El Kaabi’s scoring touch and the midfield experience of Dani García provide genuine threats that Madrid must respect.

The match will be decided by Madrid’s ability to manage the game’s intensity. If they can weather the early storm and impose their technical superiority, class should tell. Expect a cagey, strategic battle with limited clear-cut chances. One moment of Mbappé magic or Vinícius brilliance will likely separate the sides.

Key Factors:

• Real Madrid’s desperation to end their winless run (3 matches without victory)
• Olympiacos’ urgent need for points to maintain qualification hopes
• Madrid’s historic inability to win in Piraeus (0 wins in 4 attempts)
• The defensive uncertainty for Madrid without Militão
• Mbappé’s sensational individual form (13 goals in 12 La Liga matches)

Real Madrid edge this encounter 2-1, finally conquering the Karaiskakis Stadium and putting their recent struggles behind them. But victory will require character, resilience, and the match-winning quality that has defined Los Blancos’ Champions League pedigree for decades.