Sunderland vs Newcastle United Match Preview: The Tyne-Wear Derby Returns to Premier League

Match Details

Competition: Premier League 2025/26 – Matchday 16
Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
Kick-off Time: 14:00 UTC (2:00 PM GMT / 9:00 AM ET)
Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland, England
Referee: TBC
Derby: Tyne-Wear Derby / North East Derby

Current League Standings & Form

Sunderland – The Promoted Overachievers

Position: 8th Place
Points: 19 points from 15 matches
Record: 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses
Goals Scored: 18 | Goals Conceded: 17
Goal Difference: +1

Recent Form (Last 6 Matches): D-D-D-L-L-W
The Black Cats have defied all expectations in their first season back in the Premier League after a nine-year absence. Sitting comfortably in 8th place, just one point behind Newcastle, Sunderland have established themselves as genuine mid-table competitors. However, recent form has been concerning with a heavy 3-0 defeat to Manchester City followed by a 1-1 draw with Liverpool. Their last six matches show six points from one win, three draws, and two defeats.

Last Five Results:

• Liverpool 1-1 Sunderland (Dec 3) – Premier League
• Manchester City 3-0 Sunderland (Nov 6) – Premier League
• Sunderland 3-2 Bournemouth (Nov 29) – Premier League (thrilling comeback)
• Fulham 1-0 Sunderland (Nov 22) – Premier League
• Sunderland 2-2 Arsenal (Nov 8) – Premier League

Newcastle United – Champions League Contenders

Position: 9th Place
Points: 22 points from 15 matches
Record: 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses
Goals Scored: 21 | Goals Conceded: 19
Goal Difference: +2

Recent Form (Last 6 Matches): W-D-W-D-W-W
The Magpies are eighth in the Premier League form table with ten points from three wins, one draw, and two defeats in their last six matches. Eddie Howe’s side have won seven consecutive home matches but face a stern test on enemy territory. Recent results include a dramatic 2-2 draw with Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League and a crucial 2-1 victory over Burnley. Newcastle are competing on multiple fronts this season.

Last Five Results:

• Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Newcastle (Dec 10) – UEFA Champions League
• Newcastle 2-1 Burnley (Dec 6) – Premier League
• Newcastle 2-2 Tottenham (Dec 2) – Premier League
• Everton 1-4 Newcastle (Nov 29) – Premier League (dominant display)
• Marseille 2-1 Newcastle (Nov 25) – UEFA Champions League (loss)

Head-to-Head Record

The Tyne-Wear Derby is one of English football’s most intense rivalries, with a rich history spanning over a century:

Recent Meetings (Since 2016):

• Newcastle 5-1 Sunderland (Jan 6, 2024) – FA Cup (last meeting)
• Newcastle 3-0 Sunderland (Feb 20, 2016) – Premier League
• Sunderland 1-1 Newcastle (Oct 25, 2015) – Premier League
• Newcastle 1-0 Sunderland (Apr 5, 2015) – Premier League
• Sunderland 0-1 Newcastle (Dec 21, 2014) – Premier League

Overall Head-to-Head Stats (All-time):

• Total meetings: 168 matches
• Sunderland wins: 55 (33%)
• Newcastle wins: 61 (36%)
• Draws: 52 (31%)
• Recent head-to-head: Newcastle dominant (unbeaten in last 6)

Key Statistics:

• First Premier League derby since 2016 (9-year gap)
• Newcastle won 5-1 in their last meeting (FA Cup 2024)
• Sunderland haven’t beaten Newcastle since 2016
• Historical record at Stadium of Light: Sunderland 6 wins, Newcastle 3 wins, 4 draws (last 13 meetings)
• Both teams scored in 6 of last 7 head-to-head encounters
• Average 2.71 goals per match in recent derbies

Team News & Injuries

Sunderland Injury List

Out:

• Luke O’Nien (Suspended – red card vs Manchester City, crucial absence)
• Reinildo (Injury – long-term, out until January 2026)
• Ajibola Alese (Injury – unavailable)
• Leo Hjelde (Injury – doubtful)
• Habib Diarra (Injury – being assessed)

Key Players Available:

• Wilson Isidor (Forward – 5 goals, top scorer)
• Enzo Le Fée (Midfielder – 3 goals, creative force)
• Brian Brobbey (Forward – 2 goals on loan from Ajax)
• Trai Hume (Defender – 2 goals)
• Dan Ballard (Defender – 2 goals, set-piece threat)
• Anthony Patterson (Goalkeeper – impressive debut season)
• Jobe Bellingham (Midfielder – younger brother of Jude, emerging talent)

Newcastle United Injury List

Out:

• Kieran Trippier (Injury – long-term absence)
• William Osula (Injury – unavailable)
• Emil Krafth (Injury – expected return late December)
• Sven Botman (Knee injury – long-term, out until 2026)

Doubts:

• Nick Pope (Groin injury – major doubt, could return)
• Yoane Wissa (Illness – being assessed after recent signing)
• Joelinton (Injury concerns – expected to be available)

Key Players Available:

• Alexander Isak (Forward – top scorer with significant goals)
• Harvey Barnes (Winger – 8 goals, in excellent form)
• Nick Woltemade (Forward – 7 goals, breakthrough season)
• Anthony Gordon (Winger – 6 goals, key threat)
• Bruno Guimarães (Midfielder – 5 goals, captain and playmaker)
• Jacob Murphy (Winger – 4 goals)
• Lewis Miley (Midfielder – rated 9/10 vs Everton, outstanding young talent)

Tactical Analysis

Sunderland’s Approach

Manager Régis Le Bris will likely deploy a compact 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation, prioritizing defensive organization while exploiting Newcastle’s vulnerabilities on the counter-attack. The Black Cats have built their success on late goals and resilience, particularly at the atmospheric Stadium of Light.

Strengths:

• Home advantage at Stadium of Light (fervent atmosphere)
• Reputation for scoring late goals
• Overachieving all season as promoted side
• Just one point behind Newcastle in table
• Defensive solidity (17 goals conceded in 15 matches)
• Wilson Isidor’s goalscoring threat (5 goals)
• Jobe Bellingham’s emerging quality in midfield

Weaknesses:

• Luke O’Nien suspended (crucial defensive midfielder absent)
• Recent form concerning (1 win in last 6)
• Haven’t beaten Newcastle since 2016
• Lost 5-1 in last meeting
• Heavy defeat to Manchester City exposed limitations
• Lack experience at this level compared to Newcastle
• Missing several defensive options through injury

Newcastle’s Game Plan

Eddie Howe typically employs an aggressive 4-3-3 formation emphasizing high pressing, quick transitions, and attacking width. However, Newcastle’s away form has been inconsistent, and the hostile derby atmosphere will test their composure.

Strengths:

• Superior squad quality and depth
• Excellent recent form (3 wins in last 6 PL matches)
• Multiple goalscoring threats (Barnes 8, Woltemade 7, Gordon 6)
• Champions League experience this season
• Bruno Guimarães’ midfield mastery
• Seven consecutive home wins (confidence high)
• Recent 4-1 thrashing of Everton showed quality

Weaknesses:

• Away form inconsistent
• Nick Pope potentially unavailable (goalkeeping concerns)
• Defensive injuries mounting (Botman, Trippier, Krafth out)
• Tendency to concede late goals
• Derby pressure and hostile atmosphere
• Haven’t played at Stadium of Light in Premier League since 2016
• Champions League commitments causing potential fatigue

Key Battles

Wilson Isidor vs. Newcastle’s Defense
Sunderland’s top scorer with 5 goals will be crucial to any hopes of victory. His pace and movement could exploit spaces left by Newcastle’s high defensive line, particularly with key defenders missing.

Bruno Guimarães vs. Sunderland’s Midfield
The Brazilian captain is Newcastle’s heartbeat, dictating tempo and providing defensive cover. With O’Nien suspended, Sunderland’s midfield will struggle to contain his influence and quality.

Jobe Bellingham vs. Newcastle’s Midfield
The younger brother of Jude Bellingham has impressed this season and will relish the derby spotlight. His energy, technical ability, and composure could be vital in Sunderland’s attempts to control possession.

Alexander Isak vs. Dan Ballard
Newcastle’s main goal threat faces Sunderland’s defensive leader in what could be the decisive individual battle. Isak’s movement and finishing versus Ballard’s physicality and positioning will likely determine the outcome.

The Atmosphere
Perhaps the biggest factor: the Stadium of Light will be absolutely electric for the first Tyne-Wear Premier League derby in nine years. Can Newcastle handle the hostility, or will Sunderland feed off the energy?

Statistical Insights

Scoring Trends:

• Sunderland average 1.20 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded per match
• Newcastle average 1.40 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded per match
• Sunderland have a reputation for late goals
• Both teams scored in 6 of last 7 derby meetings
• Recent derbies average 2.71 goals per match

Form Analysis:

• Sunderland: 15th in form table (6 points from last 6)
• Newcastle: 8th in form table (10 points from last 6)
• Sunderland: 40% of matches Over 2.5 goals
• Newcastle: 66.67% of matches Over 2.5 goals
• Under 1.5 goals in Sunderland’s last 15 consecutive matches (remarkable defensive record)

Home/Away Records:

• Sunderland home: Strong record with passionate support
• Newcastle away: Inconsistent despite recent improvements
• Historical Stadium of Light record favors Sunderland slightly in recent years
• Newcastle haven’t won at Stadium of Light in PL since 2016

Betting Odds & Market Analysis

Match Result (Approximate Odds):

• Sunderland Win: 2.50 to 3.58 (+150 to +258)
• Draw: 3.30 to 3.50 (+230 to +250)
• Newcastle Win: 2.18 to 2.25 (+118 to +125)

Goals Market:

• Over 2.5 Goals: 1.93 to 2.10 (+93 to +110)
• Under 2.5 Goals: 1.70 to 1.85 (-143 to -118)
• Both Teams to Score – Yes: 1.80 to 2.00 (-125 to +100)
• Both Teams to Score – No: 1.90 (-110)

Correct Score:

• 1-1 Draw: 6.50 (+550)
• Newcastle 2-1: 8.00 to 11.00 (+700 to +1000)
• Sunderland 2-1: 9.00 (+800)
• 1-2 Newcastle: 11.00 to 3.20 (+1000)

Special Bets:

• First Half – First Goal (Newcastle): 2.34 (+134)
• Last Team to Score (Sunderland): 2.25 (+125) – reputation for late goals
• Nick Woltemade Anytime Scorer: 2.20 (+120)

Anytime Goalscorer:

• Alexander Isak: 2.50 (+150)
• Harvey Barnes: 3.00 (+200)
• Wilson Isidor: 3.25 (+225)
• Nick Woltemade: 3.50 (+250)
• Anthony Gordon: 3.75 (+275)

Expert Prediction & Analysis

The Tyne-Wear Derby returns to the Premier League stage after a nine-year absence, and the anticipation is palpable throughout the North East. This Sunday afternoon encounter represents more than three points—it’s about regional pride, bragging rights, and rekindling one of English football’s most passionate rivalries.

Sunderland’s return to the top flight has been nothing short of remarkable. Sitting 8th with 19 points, the Black Cats have punched well above their weight and established themselves as genuine mid-table competitors. Their home record at the Stadium of Light has been solid, and the atmosphere for this historic derby will be absolutely electric—possibly the most intimidating environment Newcastle have faced all season. The loss of Luke O’Nien through suspension is a significant blow, removing a crucial defensive presence and experienced head from midfield.

Newcastle arrive as slight favorites, and deservedly so. Eddie Howe has built a squad capable of competing in the Champions League while maintaining Premier League form. Their recent results demonstrate quality and consistency, particularly the 4-1 demolition of Everton and seven consecutive home wins. However, away form remains a concern, and the unique pressure of a derby at the hostile Stadium of Light presents challenges they haven’t faced in Premier League competition at this venue since 2016.

The head-to-head record heavily favors Newcastle, who haven’t lost to Sunderland since 2016 and won 5-1 in their last meeting (FA Cup 2024). That humiliating defeat will motivate Sunderland enormously, providing extra determination to prove they belong at this level. However, the gap in squad quality, depth, and experience is undeniable. Newcastle’s attacking firepower—Barnes (8 goals), Woltemade (7), Gordon (6), and Isak—significantly outweighs Sunderland’s threat.

The tactical battle will be fascinating. Sunderland must stay compact, frustrate Newcastle’s attacking patterns, and exploit counter-attacking opportunities through Isidor’s pace. Newcastle will aim to control possession, stretch Sunderland’s defense, and capitalize on their superior quality in the final third. The absence of O’Nien gives Newcastle’s creative players more freedom, while Sunderland’s injury crisis in defense could be exposed by Newcastle’s movement.

Derby matches often defy logic and form guides. The emotional intensity, hostile atmosphere, and sheer desire can overcome technical disparities. Sunderland’s reputation for late goals adds unpredictability—they’ve rescued points countless times this season through determination and never-say-die attitude. The Stadium of Light will be rocking, and Newcastle must handle that pressure while maintaining tactical discipline.

Given all factors, Newcastle’s superior quality should prevail, but Sunderland’s home advantage, passionate support, and motivation to beat their rivals for the first time in nine years makes this far closer than recent meetings suggest. Expect a tense, physical encounter where both teams have genuine scoring opportunities.

Score Prediction

Sunderland 1-2 Newcastle United

Verdict

Newcastle United will secure a hard-fought, dramatic away victory in the Tyne-Wear Derby, extending their dominance over Sunderland but only by the narrowest of margins. This prediction reflects the balance between Newcastle’s superior squad quality and Sunderland’s home advantage in one of football’s most hostile atmospheres.

The match will be intense, physical, and emotionally charged from the opening whistle. Sunderland will start aggressively, feeding off the incredible atmosphere at the Stadium of Light, and will likely take the game to Newcastle early. Wilson Isidor or Enzo Le Fée could capitalize on early nervousness in Newcastle’s backline to give the hosts a shocking lead, sending the home crowd into delirium.

However, Newcastle’s quality will eventually shine through. The combination of Alexander Isak’s movement, Harvey Barnes’ pace and directness, and Bruno Guimarães’ midfield control will gradually wear down Sunderland’s resistance. Nick Woltemade or Anthony Gordon could level the scores before halftime, settling Newcastle’s nerves and shifting momentum.

The decisive moment will likely come in the second half when Newcastle’s superior fitness, squad depth, and experience tells. A late goal—possibly from Isak or Barnes—will break Sunderland hearts and secure all three points for the Magpies. The 2-1 scoreline reflects both Newcastle’s quality and Sunderland’s competitive spirit, giving the home fans something to cheer despite defeat.

Key to the Match:

• Early goal crucial for Sunderland’s confidence
• Atmosphere at Stadium of Light will be absolutely electric
• O’Nien’s suspension weakens Sunderland’s midfield significantly
• Newcastle must weather early storm and impose quality
• Bruno Guimarães’ midfield control could be decisive
• Sunderland’s late-goal reputation keeps them dangerous throughout
• Derby passion may override form and quality temporarily

This promises to be one of the weekend’s most compelling fixtures—a genuine grudge match where pride, history, and regional supremacy are at stake. Sunderland will give everything to end their nine-year wait for a derby victory, but Newcastle’s quality, depth, and recent dominance in this fixture should see them emerge victorious in a thrilling, dramatic encounter.

The 2-1 prediction acknowledges Sunderland will score (both teams have found the net in 6 of the last 7 meetings) and push Newcastle to the limit, but ultimately, the Magpies’ superior attacking options and Champions League-caliber squad will prove too much. Expect late drama, controversial moments, and an atmosphere that will be talked about for years. Welcome back, Tyne-Wear Derby—English football has missed you.