As the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) 2025 kicks off, Group A presents a mouth-watering clash between Mali and Zambia. Taking place at the Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca on December 22, 2025, this match is a vital opener for two sides with high ambitions. Mali enters the tournament as perennial “dark horses,” while Zambia, the 2012 champions, are looking to reclaim their status among Africa’s elite.
Here is everything you need to know in our comprehensive Mali vs Zambia match preview.
Head to Head (H2H)
Historically, Zambia has held the upper hand in this fixture, though recent years have seen a shift in momentum. Across their six previous meetings in all competitions, the record stands as follows:
- Zambia Wins: 2
- Mali Wins: 1
- Draws: 3
The most iconic encounter between the two remains the 1994 AFCON semi-final, where Zambia thrashed Mali 4-0. However, their most recent meeting in September 2022 saw Mali claim a narrow 1-0 victory in a friendly, courtesy of an early goal from El Bilal Touré. Notably, Zambia is unbeaten in all competitive (non-friendly) matches against Mali, a psychological edge they will hope to maintain in Morocco.
Prediction: Who will win?
Mali enters this fixture as the bookmakers’ favorite, boasting a squad packed with European-based talent such as Yves Bissouma (if fit), Amadou Haidara, and Lassine Sinayoko. The “Eagles” have shown impressive consistency in 2025, winning four of their last five matches and maintaining a rock-solid defensive record.
Zambia, under caretaker manager Moses Sichone, has struggled for form late in 2025, suffering several defeats in the build-up to the tournament. However, with Patson Daka and Fashion Sakala leading the line, the “Copper Bullets” possess the pace to exploit Mali on the counter-attack.
Our Analysis: Mali’s technical superiority in midfield and defensive stability make them the likely victors. While Zambia will be competitive, Mali’s depth and recent form should see them through.
Match Verdict: Mali Win.
Correct Score
Expect a tactical battle where both teams approach the opening game with caution. Mali rarely concedes more than one goal, while Zambia has struggled to find the net consistently against top-tier African opposition recently.
Correct Score Prediction: Mali 2-1 Zambia
A 2-1 result reflects Mali’s attacking quality while acknowledging Zambia’s ability to create chances through Daka’s movement. Another plausible outcome for those looking for a lower-scoring affair is a 1-0 Mali win.
Key Players to Watch
- Mali: El Bilal Touré – The striker is in clinical form and was the difference-maker the last time these two sides met.
- Zambia: Patson Daka – The Leicester City forward remains Zambia’s primary goal threat and will be hungry to score his first-ever AFCON finals goal.
