Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Preview: Premier League 2025/26 Match Prediction, Score Tips & Analysis

The Premier League 2025/26 season ramps up with a crucial mid-table scrap as Burnley FC hosts Nottingham Forest at Turf Moor. Both sides, scrapping for early points amid relegation pressures, make this Round 5 clash a must-watch for survival hopefuls. This detailed match preview unpacks team news, recent form, head-to-head battles, star performers, tactical setups, and betting angles, SEO-optimized for queries like “Burnley vs Nottingham Forest prediction,” “Premier League score tips,” “team news,” and “match analysis.” Ideal for Clarets and Garibaldi Reds fans, fantasy players, and punters eyeing value in this gritty encounter.

Match Details: Date, Time, Venue, and Tournament Type

Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025 Time: 15:00 BST (British Summer Time) / 10:00 ET / 07:00 PT Venue: Turf Moor, Burnley, England (Capacity: 21,944) Tournament Type: Premier League 2025/26 (England’s flagship professional football league, pitting 20 clubs in a grueling 38-match season where every point counts toward avoiding relegation, securing European berths, or chasing the crown—derbies like this one often ignite survival narratives)

Kicking off post-international break, this fixture tests squad depth amid fatigue. Burnley, managed by Scott Parker, thrives on Turf Moor’s compact pitch and raucous home support, famed for its “Suarez That” history. Nottingham Forest, under Ange Postecoglou’s fresh mandate, seeks a road tonic after midweek woes. No live UK broadcast, but tune in via Peacock (US), Optus Sport (Australia), or Premier League app highlights—global streams via betting partners ensure worldwide access for this pivotal Premier League showdown.

Team News and Injuries: Lineups and Availability

Team news dominates Burnley vs Nottingham Forest discourse, with international tolls and bans reshaping squads for Premier League fantasy tweaks and live bets. Burnley’s Scott Parker navigates a defensive crisis: Zeki Amdouni (long-term knee) is out, while Jordan Beyer and Connor Roberts (knee issues) remain sidelined—potentially forcing Maxime Estève into a back-three pivot. New loanee Florentino Luis eyes a debut in midfield, with Josh Cullen anchoring. Up top, Lyle Foster leads alongside Jaidon Anthony, but Hjalmar Ekdal’s knock risks rotation. Parker’s 4-2-3-1 stresses solidity (78% pass accuracy at home), but 6 yellows in four games flags discipline. Expected lineup:

Burnley (4-2-3-1): Dúbravka; Walker, Ekdal, Hartman, Estève; Cullen, Ugochukwu; Laurent, Tchaouna, Anthony; Foster.

Nottingham Forest’s Ange Postecoglou grapples with absences: Ola Aina (hamstring surgery, out till late 2025) and Murillo (knock, doubtful) weaken flanks, while Nicolás Domínguez (unspecified) and Nicolo Savona (injury) sit. Chris Wood spearheads, backed by Omari Hutchinson’s creativity. Midfield duo Ryan Yates and Douglas Luiz provide steel, but Postecoglou’s 3-4-3 demands quick recoveries. Forest’s 7 yellows in four outings risks cards. Expected lineup:

Nottingham Forest (3-4-3): Victor; Boly, Zinchenko, Morato; McAtee, Luiz, Yates, Bakwa; Hutchinson, Jesus, Wood.

Burnley’s home resilience (unbeaten in 14/15 2025) meets Forest’s transition threats (11 shots/game), but injuries tilt toward cautious setups.

Recent Form: Burnley and Nottingham Forest’s Premier League 2025/26 Start

Burnley’s recent form in Premier League 2025/26 is gritty yet unrewarding, with 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses from four matches, slotting them 17th on 3 points and -4 goal difference. They’ve scored 3 goals (xG 1.12/game), efficient on counters but blunt—evident in a 1-0 home loss to Liverpool (Sep 14, 95th-min penalty heartbreak) after draws at Man Utd and a win over Sunderland. Losses to Tottenham (2-0) exposed set-piece woes (5 conceded). EFL Cup progress via a 2-1 vs. lower-tier adds morale, but pre-season friendlies (1-1 Hearts) hint inconsistency. Turf Moor’s fortress shines: unbeaten in 14/15 2025 homes (10W, 4D), averaging 1.4 goals scored, 0.8 conceded—vital for survival, with 10 shots/game but 28% conversion.

Nottingham Forest’s form is turbulent under Postecoglou, with 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses for 4 points, 15th place. They’ve netted 4 goals (xG 1.05/game), potent via Wood (2 goals) but leaky (8 conceded). A 3-0 Arsenal thrashing (Sep 13) followed a 2-2 Palace draw and Brentford win, but midweek 3-2 EFL Cup loss to Swansea (Sep 17) exposed fragility (12 fouls/game, 7 yellows). Away: 1 win in 2, but 4 concessions signal issues. Last six across comps: 1W, 2D, 3L, with 11 shots/game—Postecoglou’s high line yields excitement but risks, unbeaten in 3/5 aways pre-Arsenal.

Head-to-Head Record: Burnley vs Nottingham Forest History and Stats

The head-to-head ledger between Burnley and Nottingham Forest is a tale of Turf Moor tenacity, with the Clarets edging overall but Forest striking back recently. In 110 clashes since 1892, Burnley claim 43 wins to Forest’s 38, plus 29 draws—averaging 2.45 goals/game for cagey affairs. Last 10 Premier League: Forest 4W, Burnley 3W, 3D. At Turf Moor, Burnley lead 32-9 in 56, but Forest’s 2-1 win (May 2024) snapped a Clarets streak. Key results:

• Burnley 1-2 Nottingham Forest (Premier League, May 2024, Forest’s late turnaround)
• Nottingham Forest 1-1 Burnley (Premier League, Dec 2023, stalemate)
• Burnley 3-1 Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 2020, home rout)
• Nottingham Forest 0-1 Burnley (Premier League, 2019, Wood’s winner)
• Burnley 1-0 Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 2018, defensive masterclass)

Stats favor Burnley’s home shots (14 vs. Forest’s 10 in recent H2H) and corners (8.4 avg), while Forest edge interceptions (20 vs. 16). Under 2.5 goals in 5/6 last (83%), BTTS in 40%—trends for a low-scoring scrap where Burnley’s fortress meets Forest’s resurgence.

Key Players to Watch: Stars in Burnley vs Nottingham Forest

Spotlight falls on duel-deciders in Burnley vs Nottingham Forest. For hosts, Lyle Foster anchors attack with pace and finishing (1 goal in 4), targeting Forest’s injury-hit backline—his counters fuel Burnley’s 1.4 home goals/game. Midfielder Josh Cullen dictates tempo (82% pass accuracy), while winger Jaidon Anthony stretches via dribbles, key in 10-shot home avg.

Forest’s Chris Wood looms large, his hold-up and scoring (2 goals) exploiting Burnley’s set-piece frailty (5 conceded). Winger Omari Hutchinson dazzles with vision (1 assist), and midfielder Ryan Yates battles for duels (12/game). Amid Forest’s 11-shot potency, these threats could sway a match averaging 2.45 H2H goals.

Tactical Preview: Strategies and Match Dynamics

Tactically, Burnley vs Nottingham Forest brews a survival chess match in Premier League 2025/26 Round 5. Parker’s 4-2-3-1 for Burnley drills compactness (52% possession home) and counters (10 shots/game), pressing high to disrupt Forest’s build—exploiting Aina/Murillo voids. Turf Moor’s tight confines aid this, but Amdouni’s absence curbs creativity, risking Yates’ midfield dominance if fouls mount (12/game).

Postecoglou’s 3-4-3 pushes transitions (11 shots/game), with Wood/Jesus linking via Hutchinson—targeting Burnley’s 7 concessions. High line risks (8 shipped) against Foster’s runs, but 7 yellows hints cards. Dynamics scream under 2.5 (5/6 H2H), 8+ corners from flanks, low BTTS (40%). Burnley’s home grit (14/15 unbeaten 2025) vs. Forest’s away bite (1W in 2) promises tension, but injuries favor hosts’ resilience.

Prediction and Correct Score: Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Score Tips

Synthesizing form, H2H, and tactics, Burnley edge this Premier League relegation six-pointer at Turf Moor. Their fortress (14/15 unbeaten 2025 homes, 1.4 goals scored) and Forest’s woes (2 straight losses, 8 conceded) outweigh Postecoglou’s firepower, though Wood threatens. Under 2.5 likely (5/6 H2H, 2.45 avg), low BTTS (40%), but Burnley’s grit tips the scales—aligning with 50% home win probability.

Overall Prediction: Burnley to win (Burnley Draw No Bet at 1.75 odds recommended). Correct Score Prediction: 1-0 Burnley. This nods to defensive masterclasses (4/10 H2H clean sheets) and Foster’s edge, mirroring xG (1.12 vs. 1.05) and Turf Moor’s low-scorers. Betting tips: Under 2.5 goals (1.65 odds), Burnley clean sheet (2.80).