We’re just over a month into the 2025-26 NHL season, which means fans have had plenty of time to react, and perhaps in many cases overreact, to what’s gone down so far. There have been some big surprises and some equally big disappointments throughout the first month of the campaign.
Let’s take a look at some of the biggest overreactions, and predict whether or not there’s a real cause for concern.
Edmonton hasn’t addressed its biggest need, as it continues to deploy Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard at goalie, with a shoddy defense in front of them. Thus far, the Oilers have surrendered 60 goals in 18 games and sit in the middle of the Pacific Division at 8–6–4.
Top defensemen Evan Bouchard and Matthias Ekholm have struggled, and they sit near the bottom of the team in terms of plus/minus at -9 and -8, respectively. Considering Bouchard signed a new contract that pays him $10.5 million per season, his lack of defensive production is simply unacceptable. Even Connor McDavid, who has had a negative plus/minus just once since his rookie year, sits at -3 on the campaign.
The Oilers’ offense remains potent, but their glaring issues on defense need to be addressed. Failure to do so with haste could see the Oilers fall out of the playoff race entirely.
The Maple Leafs are playing around .500 hockey to start the year in what is the organization’s first campaign without Mitch Marner on the roster since his rookie season back in 2016. Early on, the entire offense has struggled to cope with his departure, and perhaps no one is feeling his absence more than Matthews.
Toronto’s power play is converting at just a 17.4 % clip, which ranks 23rd in the NHL. That’s down significantly from 2024-25, when they were the NHL’s ninth-best power play team with a 24.8% success rate.
Matthews hasn’t looked like his usual dominant self without Marner in town, either. After recording more than a point per game in each of the last four years, the Maple Leafs captain has just 14 points (9 goals) in 18 games this year, and has just two points on special teams. It’s hard to replace the level of playmaking Marner brought to the table, but it’s not as if there aren’t other stars having success in Toronto this year, evidenced by Willy Nylander and John Tavares both enjoying strong campaigns.
Thus far into the season, three of the top four leaders in points are 20-years-old or younger. Macklin Celebrini, Connor Bedard and Leo Carlsson have been dominant out the gate of the 2025-26 campaign, each with 26 points. Only Nathan MacKinnon (32) has more. Additionally, Matthew Schaefer looks terrific for the Islanders, already taking on tremendous responsibility early into his rookie year.
It’s not totally shocking to see the NHL’s young stars performing so well, After all, they were all high draft picks, with Celebrini, Bedard and Schaefer selected as No. 1 picks in consecutive years. Still, it’s encouraging to see such young talent performing at such a high level early on.
After missing out on the 4 Nations Face-Off last year, both Bedard and Celebrini have effectively made themselves locks for Team Canada at the Winter Olympics, and should be All-Stars, too.
After a putrid start in their first three games, the hockey world was quick to write off the Sabres. Well… they may not have been wrong. Buffalo has 14 points in 16 games and are in the midst of a four-game losing streak. Early on, it seems likely the team will extend its playoff drought for another season, which would be the 15th year in a row they’ve missed out on the postseason.
Leadership and defense continue to plague the Sabres, who will now be without captain Rasmus Dahlin for an undisclosed amount of time while he attends to personal matters. The team surrenders the sixth-most goals per game in the league (3.38), while scoring the at the fifth-lowest rate (2.63).
Ovechkin hasn’t looked quite as sharp to start the season, though he’s been improving of late. He’s scored just four goals in his first 16 games, and the Capitals look like a shell of the team that had the most points in the Eastern Conference last year.
Their power play was solid last season, with a 23.5% conversion rate. That’s plummeted to 15.4% this year, and Ovechkin’s lack of production on special teams is playing a big part in Washington’s lack of success. Ovechkin is still without a single power play goal this year. He had 14 such goals in 2024-25.
Coming off a year in which he scored 44 goals in 65 games, Ovechkin seems to have lost a step after surpassing Wayne Gretzky for the most goals in NHL history. Perhaps less hungry without a record to pursue, Ovechkin needs to re-discover his form in front of the net, and particularly on the power play.
There’s been no better player this season than Nathan MacKinnon, and quite frankly, it’s not particularly close. MacKinnon has jumped out to a scalding hot start to the season, and may already be on the verge of locking up the Hart Trophy for the second time in three seasons.
He’s racked up an astounding 32 points in his first 17 games, averaging almost a goal and an assist per contest. Additionally, the 30-year-old leads the NHL in goals (14) and is tied for the league lead in assists (18). He’s also leading the NHL in even-strength points and shots on goal, a testament to his ability to perform at the highest level regardless of what situation the team finds itself in.
MacKinnon has the Avalanche off to a tremendous start to the year. At 11–1–5, Colorado has secured at least one point in all but one of their games. MacKinnon is an impressive +15 on the year, too, which ranks second in the entire league. If he can maintain this high level of play, there won’t be much of a debate as to who will win the Hart Trophy.
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