Burnley vs Chelsea: Match Preview
Head to Head
Historically, Chelsea have dominated the fixture. In their last 19 meetings, Chelsea have won 12, drawn 6, and lost only 1.
At Turf Moor, Burnley’s home ground, Chelsea’s record remains strong: they have won multiple times when playing away.
According to SportsMole, Burnley have never beaten Chelsea in the Premier League, with Chelsea winning four of their past five PL clashes and drawing the other.
Moreover, many of their past matches have seen goals: over 70% of the H2H games feature more than 2.5 goals.
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Prediction
Based on recent form and historical dominance, Chelsea are clear favourites. Several predictive models put the probability of a Chelsea victory at around 65–70%.
Defensive solidity might be key: some tipsters expect under 2.5 goals, given both teams’ tendencies in recent matches.
There’s also a lean toward both teams not scoring (BTTS – No), which aligns with the prediction of a tight, controlled Chelsea win.
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Correct Score
Putting together the H2H data, form analysis, and statistical modeling:
The most likely correct score appears to be 0–1 in favour of Chelsea. This is supported by BetClan, which gives this exact score a higher probability among possible outcomes.
Another plausible alternative (though less likely) is 0–2, given Chelsea’s away strength and Burnley’s defensive resolve.
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Why This Matters
For Chelsea, a win would reinforce their superiority in this matchup and help sustain momentum.
For Burnley, keeping it tight and defensive will be key: breaking down Chelsea has historically been difficult, but preventing goals could at least secure a draw or make life difficult for the Blues.
