Sometimes taking underdogs on the moneyline instead of the spread can come back to haunt you, as was the case with both my upset picks in the Week 9 edition of the Road to 272 Bets. My two upset picks, the Falcons and the Raiders, lost by a single point due to a missed extra point and a missed two-point conversion. Because I took them on the moneyline, those bets went 0-2 instead of going 2-0, which they would’ve been had I just bet them on the spread.
That is one of the many things that went wrong for me last week, which led to one of my worst performances in the history of the Road to 272 Bets. The conclusion of Week 9 marks the halfway point of the NFL season, so let’s brush ourselves off and try to rebound with a strong Week 10.
Road to 272 Bets Week 8 Record
Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record
Raiders vs. Broncos Prediction
The Las Vegas Raiders’ offense has been abysmal this season. They rank 30th in the league in offensive DVOA, ahead of only the Titans and Browns, and now they have to hit the road to take on arguably the best defense in the NFL. The Broncos rank fourth in opponent EPA per Play and first in opponent success rate. It’s hard to imagine the Raiders being able to score enough points to cover this spread.
It’s also worth noting how much better the Broncos have been at home this season, ranking third in Net Yards per Play on their home field at (+1.6). That should be enough to overwhelm the Raiders.
Pick: Broncos -9 (-110) via BetMGM
Falcons vs. Colts Prediction
The Falcons continue to lose games, and I envision them imploding as the season goes on and the players continue to lose faith in the coaching staff that has led them astray with poor game plans and play calling.
This is also a great time to buy back in on the Colts after their baffling Week 9 loss to the Steelers. Indianapolis’s level of play didn’t regress in that game, but it was impossible to overcome six turnovers. Turnovers tend to be a variable that will pop up from time to time for good teams, but likely won’t be a long-lasting issue.
Indianapolis still ranks third in Net Yards per Play (+1.2), third in DVOA, first in EPA per play, and second in Success Rate. Meanwhile, the Falcons have regressed, especially defensively, as the season goes on, and their poor offensive playcalling will keep them from being able to keep pace with the Colts.
Finally, the Falcons’ 29th ranking in opponent rush success rate is going to come back to haunt them against Jonathan Taylor and Co.
Pick: Colts -5.5 (+100)
Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction
The Dolphins’ Week 8 win against the Falcons is looking like a blip on the radar after their embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9. The Dolphins have few redeeming qualities, including ranking near the bottom in every metric on both sides of the ball. Overall, they’re 29th in Net Yards per Play at -0.7.
Meanwhile, the Bills have seemingly fixed their defensive issues over the BYE week and are now coming off impressive wins against both the Panthers and the Bills. Their offense continues to roll, but if their defense can shut down Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs, the Dolphins shouldn’t be much of an issue for them.
Pick: Bills -9.5 (-108) via DraftKings
Giants vs. Bears Prediction
My upset pick of the week is for the New York Giants to take down the Chicago Bears. The Bears continue to find ways to win games against bad teams, but their average scoring margin of -1.5 shows that they may not be as good as their record shows. If you’re a believer in the advanced metric called DVOA, you’d be interested to find out that these two teams rank right next to each other at 22nd and 23rd.
At the end of the day, in what is set as a coin flip game, I have more faith in Jaxson Dart, who has shown all the signs of being a baller that can drag his team to victories they may not deserve otherwise. I can’t say the same thing about Williams. Dart ranks 16th in the NFL in Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected, while Williams ranks just 23rd.
Pick: Giants +164
Saints vs. Panthers Prediction
Don’t let their winning record and an upset victory over the Packers convince you that this Panthers team is good. The underlying metrics still show that they’re one of the worst teams in the NFL. They rank 24th in Net Yards per Play (-0.6), 25th in DVOA, 23rd in EPA per Play, and 20th in opponent EPA per play. They have had things go right against inferior opponents and then faced a Packers team that put forward an F performance.
Now is the perfect time to sell high on the Panthers as they take on a hungry Saints team that is looking to deliver a win for their rookie quarterback, Tyler Shough, who looked solid in his first career start against one of the best defenses in the league. The Saints rank just one spot behind the Panthers in Net Yards per Play.
Pick: Saints +5.5 (-110) via BetMGM
Browns vs. Jets Prediction
In a toilet bowl of a game between two terrible teams, I’m going to take the side that’s getting two points, especially considering the Browns’ defense is the only redeemable unit in this game. The Browns’ defense ranks sixth in DVOA, fifth in opponent EPA, and third in opponent success rate. Every other unit in this game is a bottom-10 unit in the league, so let’s rely on the Browns’ defense to keep this game close.
Pick: Browns +2 (-110) via BetMGM
Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction
I’m going to continue to fade the Jacksonville Jaguars, who aren’t nearly as good as their record indicates, mainly because of the poor play of Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence ranks 32nd amongst starting quarterbacks this season in EPA + CPOE Composite, with only Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel ranking worse.
The Texans’ fair outrank the Jaguars in virtually every advanced metric. Houston is ninth in overall DVOA compared to the Jaguars at 17th. The Texans’ defense is also one of the best in the league, ranking second in both opponent EPA per Play and opponent success rate. With Houston set as just a 1.5-point favorite at home, that tells us the betting market would have this as a coin flip game on a neutral field, and I simply don’t agree with that evaluation.
Pick: Texans -1.5 (-105) via FanDuel
Patriots vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The New England Patriots continue to look like one of the best OVER teams in the NFL. They’re 11th in the league in offensive DVOA but 25th in defensive DVOA. Their offense is also seventh in the league in EPA per play, and Drake Maye ranks second amongst all starting quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite.
The Buccaneers’ offense hasn’t been as good as they were at the start of the year, but a lot of that has been due to injuries. Now, coming off their BYE week, they may get a few players back this week, and even if they don’t, Baker Mayfield will find a way to move the ball against this New England defense.
Give me the OVER in this interconference matchup.
Pick: OVER 48.5 (-106) via Caesars
Ravens vs. Vikings Prediction
The Baltimore Ravens look to finally be playing at the level that everyone expected them to be playing at coming into this season. It was a disastrous start to their 2025 campaign, but after a Week 7 BYE that allowed them to reset and get healthy, the Ravens have now strung together two straight wins by a combined score of 58-22. Not only did Lamar Jackson look as efficient as ever last Thursday night, but the Ravens’ defense has looked as good as they have all season.
J.J. McCarthy did enough to get the win against the Lions last weekend, but completing 56% of passes for 143 yards isn’t enough for me to be convinced that he’s going to lead the Vikings on a win streak now. It’s time to buy in on the Ravens.
Pick: Ravens -3.5 (-105) via DraftKings
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Prediction
People are starting to catch on to how good this Seattle Seahawks team is, but I still think there’s some value betting on them at their current price point in the betting market. The Seahawks are the No. 1-ranked team in the NFL according to DVOA, ranking fourth offensively, second defensively, and first in special teams. They also lead the league in Net Yards per Play at +1.6.
Despite all of that, the betting market has them evaluated as a “good but not great” team. They deserve to be bigger favorites against a Cardinals team that’s bottom 10 in the league in most metrics,
Pick: Seahawks -7 (-105)
Lions vs. Commanders Prediction
I’m surprised the total is in the 50s between the Lions and Commanders. The Washington offense isn’t going to be the same with Marcus Mariota at quarterback, and the Lions’ defense is one of the most underrated units in the league. When you think of the Lions, you think of offense, but their defense ranks seventh in opponent success rate, sixth in opponent EPA per play, and fourth in defensive DVOA.
Unless the Lions pour things on offensively, I’m willing to bet on this being a lower-scoring game than people expect. The total is a couple of points too high, I’ll bet the UNDER.
Pick: UNDER 50.5 (-110) via DraftKings
Rams vs. 49ers Prediction
I’m low on the San Francisco 49ers. Last year, nothing could go right for them in their games, but this year it’s been the complete opposite. They continue to win games despite ranking 15th in Net Yards per Play at -0.1, 15th in DVOA, 15th in EPA per play, and 22nd in opponent EPA per play. Mac Jones is looking like he’s going to be the starter moving forward, but he ranks just 15th in EPA+CPOE.
Meanwhile, the Rams are arguably the best team in the league by many metrics. They’re second in total DVOA, coming in at third in offensive DVOA and fifth in defensive DVOA. They are also the only team in the league that ranks inside the top six in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. If those numbers hold up, there’s a chance they cruise past this 49ers team.
Pick: Rams -3.5 (-105)
Steelers vs. Chargers Prediction
The Los Angeles Chargers have a real problem ahead of them with Joe Alt joining Rashawn Slater on the IR. Now, they’re without their two starting offensive tackles, which is terrible news for the team, which is already allowing the highest pressure rate per dropback at 26.5%. Now, they have to take on one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. The Steelers, spearheaded by T.J. Watt, have a pressure rate of 22.7% while sporting the third most sacks in the league this season with 27.
If the Steelers can create pressure on Justin Herbert, which all signs point to them being able to do so, this game is going to be a close one on Sunday Night Football.
It’s also worth noting that the Chargers’ defense has regressed ever since the strong start to the season. They rank 17th in defensive DVOA while allowing 5.2 yards per play.
Pick: Steelers +3 (-110) via BetMGM
Eagles vs. Packers Prediction
Both offenses in this game are better than their defenses, yet the total in this game is set in the mid-40s at 44.5. The Packers rank third in EPA per play, third in success rate, and sixth in offensive DVOA. Defensively, they rank 15th, 13th, and eighth in those three metrics.
The Eagles are in similar form, ranking eighth, 15th, and seventh in EPA, success rate, and offensive DVOA, but come in at 16th, 15th, and 18th in the defensive version of those statistics. If both offenses come to play on Monday night, there’s a chance the total soars OVER the current number of 44.5.
Pick: OVER 44.5 (-108) via FanDuel
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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