Napoli vs Qarabag FK Match Preview: UEFA Champions League 2024/25 League Phase
Match Details
Competition: UEFA Champions League 2024/25 – League Phase (Matchday 5)
Date: Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Kick-Off: 20:00 GMT (21:00 CET)
Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Italy
TV Coverage: TNT Sports 6 (UK)
Current Standings and Context
This crucial Champions League encounter sees two teams battling to secure their positions in the knockout phase playoffs. Napoli currently sit 24th in the 36-team standings with four points from four matches, while Qarabag are positioned 15th with seven points after an impressive start to their campaign.
Both sides find themselves inside the all-important top 24 that guarantees progression to the knockout play-off rounds, making this fixture a potential turning point for Napoli’s European ambitions.
Team Form Analysis
Napoli – Inconsistent in Europe, Strong at Home
Antonio Conte’s side warmed up for this fixture with a comfortable 3-1 Serie A home victory over Atalanta, thanks to a David Neres brace and Noa Lang strike. The reigning Serie A champions currently sit second in the domestic league after 12 matches, demonstrating their consistency on home soil.
However, their Champions League campaign has been turbulent. Napoli have won only one of four matches, suffering a 2-0 defeat to Manchester City and being hammered 6-2 by PSV Eindhoven. Their sole victory came against Sporting Lisbon in Naples, while they managed a goalless draw with Eintracht Frankfurt in their most recent European outing.
Recent Form (Last 5 matches across all competitions):
W-L-D-D-W
Home Record:
Napoli are unbeaten at home this season, winning six of eight games, including five victories from six domestic fixtures at the Maradona. Their home fortress has been particularly strong in European competition, with just one loss in their last 19 Champions League home matches.
Qarabag FK – Exceeding Expectations
The Azerbaijani champions have enjoyed a remarkable Champions League campaign. They began the main stage with wins over Benfica (3-2 away in Lisbon) and Copenhagen (2-0 at home), stunning results that announced their arrival on Europe’s biggest stage. After losing to Athletic Bilbao in Spain, they earned a creditable 2-2 draw with Chelsea at home.
Qarabag won their 11th league title in the past 12 seasons in 2024/25, finishing 15 points clear, demonstrating their domestic dominance in Azerbaijan. They currently sit second in the current Premier League campaign with 20 points from nine games.
Recent Form (Last 5 matches across all competitions):
W-W-D-W-D
Away Record:
Qarabag have won eight of their nine road outings this season, though their sole loss came in the Champions League, suggesting vulnerability on their travels in Europe’s elite competition.
Head-to-Head Record
This will be a historic first meeting between the two clubs. It marks the first time Napoli have faced opposition from Azerbaijan, while Qarabag’s record against Italian clubs makes for concerning reading.
Qarabag are winless in six games against Italian teams, losing five, including defeats against Roma in the 2017/18 Champions League. This statistical disadvantage represents a significant psychological hurdle for the visitors.
Tactical Analysis
Napoli’s Approach
Antonio Conte is expected to deploy a flexible system, potentially using either a 4-3-3 or the 3-4-2-1 formation that proved successful against Atalanta. The predicted lineup suggests a focus on midfield control with Lobotka and McTominay, aiming to dictate the game’s pace.
The Italian champions will look to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities through their attacking trio. With Napoli finding the net in 30 of 32 home games in European competition, their offensive threat at the Maradona is undeniable.
Key Tactical Elements:
- Midfield dominance through Lobotka’s orchestration
- Wide attacking threats from Neres and Lang
- High pressing to win the ball in dangerous areas
- Exploiting defensive transitions
Qarabag’s Game Plan
Qarabag might sit back and look to hit Napoli on the counter, using their pace and flair in attack to exploit any gaps. Their success against top teams this season has come through disciplined defensive organization and clinical counter-attacking.
Qarabag’s midfield, with Bicalho and Zoubir, will be crucial in maintaining possession and launching counter-attacks. The Azerbaijani side will need to remain compact and organized to frustrate Napoli’s attacking ambitions.
Key Tactical Elements:
- Deep defensive block to absorb pressure
- Quick transitions from defense to attack
- Utilizing pace on the wings through Zoubir and Andrade
- Set-piece opportunities as potential scoring chances
Team News and Injuries
Napoli – Significant Absences
Napoli are without several senior players, with Lorenzo Lucca suspended and Billy Gilmour managing muscle fatigue. More significantly, key midfielder Frank Anguissa sustained a serious thigh injury during the international break, joining Romelu Lukaku (hamstring), Alex Meret (metatarsal fracture), and Kevin De Bruyne (hamstring) on the sidelines.
These absences have forced Conte to reshape his lineup, though the recent tactical adjustments against Atalanta proved successful.
Qarabag FK – Near Full Strength
Qarabag’s only absentee is Ramil Sheydayev, who is ineligible. The visitors benefit from having 10 men who have started every match in the league phase so far, providing consistency and familiarity in their system.
Predicted Lineups
Napoli (4-3-3):
Goalkeeper: Vanja Milinkovic-Savic
Defense: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Alessandro Buongiorno, Miguel Gutiérrez
Midfield: Scott McTominay, Stanislav Lobotka, Eljif Elmas
Attack: Matteo Politano, Rasmus Højlund, David Neres
Qarabag FK (4-2-3-1):
Goalkeeper: Mateusz Kochalski
Defense: Matheus Silva, Bahlul Mustafazada, Kevin Medina, Elvin Cafarquliyev
Midfield: Pedro Bicalho, Marko Jankovic
Attacking Midfield: Abdellah Zoubir, Leandro Andrade, Emmanuel Addai
Striker: Néstor Durán
Key Players to Watch
Napoli
Rasmus Højlund: The Danish striker has seven goals from nine Champions League appearances, making him a significant goal threat. His physicality and finishing ability will be crucial against Qarabag’s defense.
David Neres: Fresh from his weekend brace, the Brazilian winger brings creativity and unpredictability down the flanks. His ability to beat defenders one-on-one could unlock Qarabag’s compact defense.
Scott McTominay: The Scottish midfielder has adapted brilliantly to Italian football since his summer move, providing both defensive stability and forward thrust from midfield.
Qarabag FK
Leandro Andrade: The Portuguese midfielder scored his third goal of the league phase against Chelsea, establishing himself as Qarabag’s most dangerous attacking outlet.
Pedro Bicalho: Bicalho’s importance in Qarabag’s midfield cannot be overstated, as his ability to control the game and distribute the ball will be vital.
Abdellah Zoubir: The experienced French attacking midfielder remains a creative force and has been with the club since 2018, providing leadership and goal-scoring threat.
Statistical Insights
Napoli Statistics
- Average 1.62 goals per game across all competitions this season
- Conceded 13 goals in their last six Champions League matches
- Won 12 of 21 matches across all competitions (57.14% win rate)
- Strong home record: 8 consecutive games without defeat at the Maradona
Qarabag Statistics
- Seven points from four Champions League matches
- Scored 7 goals in the competition proper this season
- Only Azerbaijani club to reach Champions League group stage (2017/18)
- First Azerbaijani side to win a Champions League proper match (vs Benfica)
Match Predictions and Betting Insights
Expert Analysis
The contrasting fortunes of both teams in their respective environments suggest Napoli hold a significant advantage. Their formidable home record combined with Qarabag’s poor historical record against Italian opposition points toward a home victory.
However, Qarabag have proven their ability to compete with top European sides this season, particularly through their disciplined defensive approach and dangerous counter-attacking threat.
Key Factors
- Home Advantage: Napoli’s impressive home record and the passionate atmosphere at the Maradona
- Historical Precedent: Qarabag’s winless record against Italian clubs
- Form Momentum: Napoli’s confidence-boosting victory over Atalanta
- Tactical Battle: Conte’s tactical flexibility versus Gurbanov’s organized approach
Score Prediction: Napoli 3-1 Qarabag FK
Napoli’s quality at home and desperation for Champions League points should prove decisive. While Qarabag will make life difficult with their organized approach, the Italian champions possess too much firepower in the final third. Expect Napoli to dominate possession and create multiple chances, with Højlund and Neres leading the attacking charge.
Qarabag may snatch a consolation goal through their counter-attacking prowess, but Napoli’s need for victory and home advantage will ultimately secure three crucial points. The hosts should score multiple goals given their attacking talent and Qarabag’s occasional defensive vulnerabilities on the road.
Final Verdict
Winner: Napoli
This match represents a must-win scenario for Antonio Conte’s side. With qualification for the knockout rounds far from guaranteed, Napoli cannot afford to drop points against opposition they should defeat on paper. Their recent tactical reshuffle has freed up their attack, and the Maradona faithful will provide an electric atmosphere.
Qarabag deserves immense credit for their Champions League campaign thus far, but facing Italian opposition away from home has historically proven problematic. While they’ll remain organized and look to exploit counter-attacking opportunities, the quality gap should tell over 90 minutes.
Napoli’s combination of home form, attacking quality, and desperate need for points makes them strong favorites to claim all three points and move closer to securing a playoff position in the knockout phase.
Final Prediction: Napoli 3-1 Qarabag FK
The Partenopei will return to winning ways in Europe, taking a significant step toward Champions League progression while Qarabag’s impressive campaign continues despite this setback.
