RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 3.78 to 1.97 on expected goals, with 92.6% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 7 November at 14:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 3.78 for the hosts and 1.97 for the visitors, a combined 5.75 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
RB Leipzig are a clear favourite at 70.3%, with the draw back at 13.7%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
RB Leipzig — last 10: W-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W (most recent first). That is 25 scored and 16 conceded, 2.50 and 1.60 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 5 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-W-W-W-W across 5, 20 scored and 1 conceded.
FC Augsburg — last 10: L-D-L-D-L-D-W-W-L-W (most recent first). That is 21 scored and 20 conceded, 2.10 and 2.00 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 9 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-W-L-W across 5, 12 scored and 13 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 4 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 3, FC Augsburg 0, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 7 Mar 2026: RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 5.75 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
RB Leipzig carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.78 against 1.97. Both teams to score sits at 84.4%, and over 2.5 goals at 92.6% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 70.3% |
| Draw | 13.7% |
| FC Augsburg win | 16% |
| Both teams to score | 84.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 92.6% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 3-1 at 5.7%, 3-2 at 5.6%, 4-1 at 5.3%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 85.3% confidence. Expected corners 12.2 against a league baseline of 9.8. RB Leipzig: only 3 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 80.3% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.50, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. RB Leipzig: only 3 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 70% confidence. Expected total goals 3.34, from 1.74 - 1.61 (Bundesliga baseline 1.57 per side). RB Leipzig: only 3 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 69.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.74 - 1.61, so the weaker attack still projects 1.61 goals. RB Leipzig: only 3 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Under 2.5 Cards — 53.7% confidence. Expected yellow cards 2.7 against a league baseline of 3.8. RB Leipzig: only 3 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 46.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.50 before the break and 1.84 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. RB Leipzig: only 3 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 43.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.74 - 1.61 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.57 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. RB Leipzig: only 3 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 43.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.74 - 1.61 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.57 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. RB Leipzig: only 3 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 36% confidence. Expected goals 1.74 - 1.61, which projects a 37% chance of a level score at the break. RB Leipzig: only 3 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
Corners & Cards Outlook
RB Leipzig average 5.3 corners a game and concede 4.9, over a rolling 20-match sample. FC Augsburg average 5.3 and concede 6.4 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 10.6 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.5 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.4; the visitors 1.9 and 1.8. That is a combined 3.3 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 3-1 — a RB Leipzig win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 5.7%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a RB Leipzig win at 70.3%, with the draw at 13.7%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
