SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.33 to 1.02 on expected goals, with 41.9% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
SC Paderborn 07 host Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 7 November at 14:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.33 for the hosts and 1.02 for the visitors, a combined 2.36 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
SC Paderborn 07 hold the edge at 42.1%, but not by enough to treat the result as settled.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
SC Paderborn 07 — last 8: D-W-D-L-W-L-L-D (most recent first). That is 6 scored and 9 conceded, 0.75 and 1.13 per game. Both teams scored in 2 of the 8, and 3 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-L-W-L across 4, 4 scored and 4 conceded.
Eintracht Frankfurt — last 10: L-W-L-D-W-L-D-D-L-L (most recent first). That is 15 scored and 24 conceded, 1.50 and 2.40 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-W-D-L across 5, 8 scored and 14 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.36 goals in this fixture, below the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.33 against 1.02. Both teams to score sits at 48.9%, and over 2.5 goals at 41.9% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 42.1% |
| Draw | 30.9% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 27% |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 14.6%, 0-0 at 11.1%, 1-0 at 10.9%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 76.8% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.52, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 75% confidence. Expected corners 11.0 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 65.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57, so the weaker attack still projects 1.57 goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 62.8% confidence. Expected total goals 3.38, from 1.81 - 1.57 (Bundesliga baseline 1.57 per side).
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Under 2.5 Cards — 60.5% confidence. Expected yellow cards 2.4 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 45.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.52 before the break and 1.86 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 42.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.57 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 42.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.57 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 34.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57, which projects a 36% chance of a level score at the break.
Corners & Cards Outlook
SC Paderborn 07 average 4.6 corners a game and concede 5.7, over a rolling 7-match sample. Eintracht Frankfurt average 4.9 and concede 5.6 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 9.5 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.3 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.3; the visitors 2.0 and 1.6. That is a combined 3.3 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-0 — a SC Paderborn 07 win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 10.9%.
Confidence: Low. The model puts a SC Paderborn 07 win at 42.1%, with the draw at 30.9%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 14.6%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and on a fixture priced this close that is a live possibility.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
