AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.40 to 2.63 on expected goals, with 76.6% for over 2.5 goals in the Ligue 1.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
AJ Auxerre host Paris FC in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 7 November at 16:15 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.40 for the hosts and 2.63 for the visitors, a combined 4.03 goals against a competition norm of 2.78.
Paris FC are a clear favourite at 63%, with the draw back at 19.2%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
AJ Auxerre — last 10: D-W-L-W-W-L-L-L-W-W (most recent first). That is 16 scored and 19 conceded, 1.60 and 1.90 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-W-W-L-W across 5, 7 scored and 6 conceded.
Paris FC — last 10: W-L-W-W-W-L-W-W-W-D (most recent first). That is 18 scored and 10 conceded, 1.80 and 1.00 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-W-L-W-W across 5, 7 scored and 5 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, AJ Auxerre have won 0, Paris FC 3, with 3 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 8 Feb 2026: AJ Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 4.03 goals in this fixture, above the Ligue 1 norm of 2.78, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Paris FC carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.63 against 1.40. Both teams to score sits at 70.7%, and over 2.5 goals at 76.6% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 17.8% |
| Draw | 19.2% |
| Paris FC win | 63% |
| Both teams to score | 70.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.6% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-2 at 8.6%, 1-3 at 7.6%, 1-1 at 7.4%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 75.3% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.34, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Paris FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 68.4% confidence. Expected corners 10.4 against a league baseline of 9.6. Paris FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 62.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.61 - 1.38, so the weaker attack still projects 1.38 goals. Paris FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 59.9% confidence. Expected total goals 2.98, from 1.61 - 1.38 (Ligue 1 baseline 1.39 per side). Paris FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Under 2.5 Cards — 54.4% confidence. Expected yellow cards 2.6 against a league baseline of 3.7. Paris FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.34 before the break and 1.64 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Paris FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 38.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.61 - 1.38 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.39 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Paris FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 38.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.61 - 1.38 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.39 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Paris FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 31.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.61 - 1.38, which projects a 39% chance of a level score at the break. Paris FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
Corners & Cards Outlook
AJ Auxerre average 5.0 corners a game and concede 5.7, over a rolling 20-match sample. Paris FC average 6.3 and concede 2.9 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 11.3 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.5 yellows a game to their opponents' 2.3; the visitors 1.2 and 1.5. That is a combined 2.7 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-2 — an Paris FC win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 8.6%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an Paris FC win at 63%, with the draw at 19.2%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
