Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna FC 1909 prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.61 to 1.72 on expected goals, with 41.1% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Parma Calcio 1913 host Bologna FC 1909 in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 7 November at 17:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.61 for the hosts and 1.72 for the visitors, a combined 2.33 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
Bologna FC 1909 are a clear favourite at 62.9%, with the draw back at 25.7%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Parma Calcio 1913 — last 10: D-L-L-L-W-L-D-L-L-W (most recent first). That is 6 scored and 15 conceded, 0.60 and 1.50 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-L-W-D-L across 5, 3 scored and 6 conceded.
Bologna FC 1909 — last 10: W-W-W-L-W-D-L-D-L-L (most recent first). That is 14 scored and 13 conceded, 1.40 and 1.30 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-W-W-L-L across 5, 8 scored and 5 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 4 meetings on record, Parma Calcio 1913 have won 2, Bologna FC 1909 1, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 8 Feb 2026: Bologna FC 1909 0-1 Parma Calcio 1913.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.33 goals in this fixture, below the Serie A norm of 2.72, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
Bologna FC 1909 carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.72 against 0.61. Both teams to score sits at 38.8%, and over 2.5 goals at 41.1% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 11.5% |
| Draw | 25.7% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 62.9% |
| Both teams to score | 38.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-1 at 15.4%, 0-2 at 14.4%, 1-1 at 11.6%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 72.1% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.31, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Parma Calcio 1913: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 57.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35, so the weaker attack still projects 1.35 goals. Parma Calcio 1913: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 53.9% confidence. Expected total goals 2.91, from 1.56 - 1.35 (Serie A baseline 1.36 per side). Parma Calcio 1913: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 53.8% confidence. Expected corners 9.0 against a league baseline of 8.8. Parma Calcio 1913: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Under 2.5 Cards — 51.8% confidence. Expected yellow cards 2.7 against a league baseline of 3.7. Parma Calcio 1913: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44% confidence. Expected goals 1.31 before the break and 1.60 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Parma Calcio 1913: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 36.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35 against a Serie A baseline of 1.36 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Parma Calcio 1913: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 36.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35 against a Serie A baseline of 1.36 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Parma Calcio 1913: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 29.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35, which projects a 40% chance of a level score at the break. Parma Calcio 1913: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
Corners & Cards Outlook
Parma Calcio 1913 average 3.4 corners a game and concede 5.9, over a rolling 20-match sample. Bologna FC 1909 average 4.0 and concede 4.8 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 7.4 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.5 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.6; the visitors 1.6 and 1.8. That is a combined 3.0 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-1 — an Bologna FC 1909 win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 15.4%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an Bologna FC 1909 win at 62.9%, with the draw at 25.7%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
