VfB Stuttgart vs SV Werder Bremen prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 2.24 to 2.54 on expected goals, with 85.6% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
795 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis Hide full analysis
Match Overview & What Is At Stake
VfB Stuttgart host SV Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 7 November at 17:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 2.24 for the hosts and 2.54 for the visitors, a combined 4.78 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
SV Werder Bremen hold the edge at 45.3%, but not by enough to treat the result as settled.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
VfB Stuttgart — last 10: W-L-L-W-L-L-W-L-D-W (most recent first). That is 19 scored and 18 conceded, 1.90 and 1.80 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-L-W-W-D across 5, 10 scored and 7 conceded.
SV Werder Bremen — last 10: W-W-D-D-W-D-W-L-L-L (most recent first). That is 17 scored and 17 conceded, 1.70 and 1.70 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-D-D-L-L across 5, 7 scored and 10 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 4 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, SV Werder Bremen 1, with 2 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 26 Apr 2026: VfB Stuttgart 1-1 SV Werder Bremen.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 4.78 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
SV Werder Bremen carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.54 against 2.24. Both teams to score sits at 82.9%, and over 2.5 goals at 85.6% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 34.8% |
| Draw | 19.9% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 45.3% |
| Both teams to score | 82.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85.6% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 2-2 at 6.8%, 1-2 at 6.1%, 2-3 at 5.7%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 79.6% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.51, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. VfB Stuttgart: only 4 days since the last match.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 70.9% confidence. Expected corners 10.6 against a league baseline of 9.8. VfB Stuttgart: only 4 days since the last match.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 69.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.78 - 1.58, so the weaker attack still projects 1.58 goals. VfB Stuttgart: only 4 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 68.4% confidence. Expected total goals 3.37, from 1.78 - 1.58 (Bundesliga baseline 1.57 per side). VfB Stuttgart: only 4 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Under 2.5 Cards — 53.4% confidence. Expected yellow cards 2.7 against a league baseline of 3.8. VfB Stuttgart: only 4 days since the last match.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 46.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 before the break and 1.85 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. VfB Stuttgart: only 4 days since the last match.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 40.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.78 - 1.58 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.57 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. VfB Stuttgart: only 4 days since the last match.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 40.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.78 - 1.58 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.57 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. VfB Stuttgart: only 4 days since the last match.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 34.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.78 - 1.58, which projects a 36% chance of a level score at the break. VfB Stuttgart: only 4 days since the last match.
Corners & Cards Outlook
VfB Stuttgart average 6.2 corners a game and concede 4.9, over a rolling 20-match sample. SV Werder Bremen average 4.2 and concede 5.1 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 10.4 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.6 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.8; the visitors 1.8 and 1.4. That is a combined 3.3 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-2 — an SV Werder Bremen win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 6.1%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts an SV Werder Bremen win at 45.3%, with the draw at 19.9%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 2-2 at 6.8%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
