Paris Saint-Germain FC vs ES Troyes AC prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 3.43 to 0.62 on expected goals, with 76.9% for over 2.5 goals in the Ligue 1.
691 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis Hide full analysis
Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Paris Saint-Germain FC host ES Troyes AC in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 7 November at 19:45 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 3.43 for the hosts and 0.62 for the visitors, a combined 4.05 goals against a competition norm of 2.78.
Paris Saint-Germain FC are a clear favourite at 88.1%, with the draw back at 8.9%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Paris Saint-Germain FC — last 10: W-L-W-W-W-L-W-W-W-D (most recent first). That is 18 scored and 10 conceded, 1.80 and 1.00 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-W-W-W-D across 5, 11 scored and 5 conceded.
ES Troyes AC — last 9: W-D-L-L-L-L-L-W-D (most recent first). That is 7 scored and 16 conceded, 0.78 and 1.78 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 9, and 3 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-L-L-W across 4, 2 scored and 5 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 1 meeting on record, Paris Saint-Germain FC have won 0, ES Troyes AC 0, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 22 Aug 2026: ES Troyes AC 0-0 Paris Saint-Germain FC.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 4.05 goals in this fixture, above the Ligue 1 norm of 2.78, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Paris Saint-Germain FC carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.43 against 0.62. Both teams to score sits at 45.3%, and over 2.5 goals at 76.9% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 88.1% |
| Draw | 8.9% |
| ES Troyes AC win | 3% |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.9% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 3-0 at 11.7%, 2-0 at 10.2%, 4-0 at 10%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 75.3% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.34, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 67.9% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.5 against a league baseline of 3.7. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 59.9% confidence. Expected total goals 2.98, from 1.58 - 1.40 (Ligue 1 baseline 1.39 per side). Paris Saint-Germain FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 59.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.58 - 1.40, so the weaker attack still projects 1.40 goals. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 50.6% confidence. Expected corners 8.9 against a league baseline of 9.6. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 48.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.58 - 1.40 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.39 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 48.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.58 - 1.40 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.39 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.34 before the break and 1.64 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 37.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.58 - 1.40, which projects a 39% chance of a level score at the break. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 3-0 — a Paris Saint-Germain FC win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 11.7%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a Paris Saint-Germain FC win at 88.1%, with the draw at 8.9%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
