Crystal Palace FC vs Liverpool FC prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.81 to 2.01 on expected goals, with 53.5% for over 2.5 goals in the Premier League.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Crystal Palace FC host Liverpool FC in the Premier League, kicking off Sunday 8 November at 14:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.81 for the hosts and 2.01 for the visitors, a combined 2.82 goals against a competition norm of 2.84.
Liverpool FC are a clear favourite at 64.1%, with the draw back at 23%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Crystal Palace FC — last 10: L-L-L-W-D-L-W-L-L-L (most recent first). That is 10 scored and 23 conceded, 1.00 and 2.30 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-W-L-L-L across 5, 7 scored and 12 conceded.
Liverpool FC — last 10: L-W-W-L-W-D-W-D-D-D (most recent first). That is 12 scored and 10 conceded, 1.20 and 1.00 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 4 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-W-W-D-L across 5, 9 scored and 7 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, Crystal Palace FC have won 2, Liverpool FC 3, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 25 Apr 2026: Liverpool FC 3-1 Crystal Palace FC.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.82 goals in this fixture, below the Premier League norm of 2.84, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
Liverpool FC carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.01 against 0.81. Both teams to score sits at 49.3%, and over 2.5 goals at 53.5% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace FC win | 13% |
| Draw | 23% |
| Liverpool FC win | 64.1% |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-2 at 12%, 1-1 at 11%, 0-1 at 10.7%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 72.2% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.28, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Liverpool FC: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 68.4% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.6 against a league baseline of 3.8. Liverpool FC: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 61.3% confidence. Expected corners 10.0 against a league baseline of 10.0. Liverpool FC: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 53.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.02 - 1.83 against a Premier League baseline of 1.42 per side; Liverpool FC rate 0.86 clear on the fitted ratings. Liverpool FC: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 53.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.02 - 1.83 against a Premier League baseline of 1.42 per side; Liverpool FC rate 0.86 clear on the fitted ratings. Liverpool FC: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 52.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.02 - 1.83, so the weaker attack still projects 1.02 goals. Liverpool FC: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 51.9% confidence. Expected total goals 2.85, from 1.02 - 1.83 (Premier League baseline 1.42 per side). Liverpool FC: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 before the break and 1.56 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Liverpool FC: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 42.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.02 - 1.83, which projects a 39% chance of a level score at the break. Liverpool FC: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
Corners & Cards Outlook
Crystal Palace FC average 4.0 corners a game and concede 5.9, over a rolling 20-match sample. Liverpool FC average 6.0 and concede 4.2 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 9.9 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.8 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.5; the visitors 1.8 and 2.3. That is a combined 3.5 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-2 — an Liverpool FC win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 12%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an Liverpool FC win at 64.1%, with the draw at 23%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
