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Premier League Fri, Sep 04, 19:00 GMT
Ipswich Town FC crest
Ipswich Town FC D W W L D W D D W W
VS
FEATURED MATCH
Liverpool FC crest
Liverpool FC L W W W L D L D D D
H2H
Head to Head Record
2 meetings on record — 0 · 0 · 2 see them
Model Verdict · First Half Over 0.5 Goals
1H Over 0.5
The record behind the preview

Form, Head-to-Head & Goal Expectation

20 completed matches · 2 previous meetings
Ipswich Town FC Home
Last 10 · any opponent
D W W L D W D D W W
  • 22 Aug 2026 H Sunderland AFC 2-1 W
  • 2 May 2026 H QPR 3-0 W
  • 28 Apr 2026 A Southampton 2-2 D
  • 25 Apr 2026 A West Brom 0-0 D
  • 22 Apr 2026 A Charlton 2-1 W
  • 19 Apr 2026 H Middlesbrough 2-2 D
  • 14 Apr 2026 A Portsmouth 0-2 L
  • 11 Apr 2026 A Norwich 2-0 W
  • 6 Apr 2026 H Birmingham 2-1 W
  • 21 Mar 2026 H Millwall 1-1 D
16–10
Scored / Let in
3
Clean sheets
6/10
Over 2.5
At home only: W-W-D-W-D across 5, 10 scored and 5 conceded.
Season rate 2.00 scored · 1.00 conceded / game
Liverpool FC Away
Last 10 · any opponent
L W W W L D L D D D
  • 29 Aug 2026 H Nottingham Forest FC 2-2 D
  • 23 Aug 2026 A Newcastle United FC 2-2 D
  • 24 May 2026 H Brentford 1-1 D
  • 15 May 2026 A Aston Villa 2-4 L
  • 9 May 2026 H Chelsea 1-1 D
  • 3 May 2026 A Man United 2-3 L
  • 25 Apr 2026 H Crystal Palace 3-1 W
  • 19 Apr 2026 A Everton 2-1 W
  • 11 Apr 2026 H Fulham 2-0 W
  • 21 Mar 2026 A Brighton 1-2 L
18–17
Scored / Let in
1
Clean sheets
7/10
Over 2.5
Away only: D-L-L-W-L across 5, 9 scored and 12 conceded.
Season rate 2.00 scored · 2.00 conceded / game
Expected goals 4.65 total · Premier League norm 2.84
3.24
1.41
Likeliest scorelines 3-1 7.7% 2-1 7.1% 4-1 6.2% no single scoreline is ever likely on its own
Head to head domestic league meetings · cups and Europe not included
0
Ipswich Town FC
0
Drawn
2
Liverpool FC
  • 25 Jan 2025 Liverpool FC 4-1 Ipswich Town FC
  • 17 Aug 2024 Ipswich Town FC 0-2 Liverpool FC
GUARANTEED CORRECT EDITORIAL & AI ANALYSIS

Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC prediction: expected goals, form and verdict

Our model makes it 3.24 to 1.41 on expected goals, with 84.2% for over 2.5 goals in the Premier League.

639 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis

Match Overview & What Is At Stake

Ipswich Town FC host Liverpool FC in the Premier League, kicking off Friday 4 September at 19:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 3.24 for the hosts and 1.41 for the visitors, a combined 4.65 goals against a competition norm of 2.84.

Ipswich Town FC are a clear favourite at 72.5%, with the draw back at 14.9%.

The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.

Ipswich Town FC — last 10: W-W-D-D-W-D-L-W-W-D (most recent first). That is 16 scored and 10 conceded, 1.60 and 1.00 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-W-D-W-D across 5, 10 scored and 5 conceded.

Liverpool FC — last 10: D-D-D-L-D-L-W-W-W-L (most recent first). That is 18 scored and 17 conceded, 1.80 and 1.70 per game. Both teams scored in 9 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-L-L-W-L across 5, 9 scored and 12 conceded.

Head-to-Head Record

Across the 2 meetings on record, Ipswich Town FC have won 0, Liverpool FC 2, with 0 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.

The most recent came on 25 Jan 2025: Liverpool FC 4-1 Ipswich Town FC.

Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say

The model expects 4.65 goals in this fixture, above the Premier League norm of 2.84, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.

Ipswich Town FC carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.24 against 1.41. Both teams to score sits at 73.2%, and over 2.5 goals at 84.2% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.

Expected Goals & Probability Outlook

Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.

Market Model probability
Ipswich Town FC win 72.5%
Draw 14.9%
Liverpool FC win 12.6%
Both teams to score 73.2%
Over 2.5 goals 84.2%

The likeliest exact scorelines are 3-1 at 7.7%, 2-1 at 7.1%, 4-1 at 6.2%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.

Published selections

  • First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 78% confidence. High-scoring form for both sides implies an early breakthrough is likely within the first 45 minutes.
  • Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 68% confidence. Liverpool's high-tempo wing play and Ipswich's defensive block will naturally concede numerous corners.
  • Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 65% confidence. Ipswich and Liverpool both average strong goal-scoring outputs, pointing to an open, high-scoring affair.
  • Match Winner: Away Win — 62% confidence. Liverpool possesses superior squad depth and quality despite Ipswich's solid home goal-scoring form.
  • Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 62% confidence. The intensity of a Premier League fixture heavily favors at least three yellow cards being issued.
  • Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 62% confidence. Liverpool's overall tactical superiority makes an away victory the most statistically probable outcome.
  • Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 60% confidence. Ipswich's solid home scoring rate combined with Liverpool's defensive concessions suggests both teams will score.
  • Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 53% confidence. Tactical adjustments and fatigue usually open up matches in the second half for higher scoring.
  • Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 52% confidence. Liverpool typically starts matches aggressively and is favored to lead by the interval.

Score Prediction & Verdict

Prediction: 3-1 — a Ipswich Town FC win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 7.7%.

Confidence: High. The model puts a Ipswich Town FC win at 72.5%, with the draw at 14.9%.

The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.

Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.

Published by Guaranteed Correct Score Tips · Premier League
Updated: Aug 30, 2026 04:29
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Markets modelled for Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC

What each bet on this fixture actually is, and what has to happen for it to win.

Match Winner

A match winner pick backs one named team to win the game outright. This list ranks the ten upcoming fixtures where the model gives one side the highest chance of doing that — home wins and away wins only, because the draw is a separate outcome and is covered on the match preview rather than here.

How it settles: The pick wins if the named team is ahead when the 90 minutes are up. A draw loses, and extra time and penalties in cup ties are ignored: everything on this site is settled from the 90-minute score.

See today's Top 10 Win list →
Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 goals means the two teams combine for three goals or more. This list ranks the ten upcoming fixtures where the model has the strongest view on that line — normally high-scoring attacks, open defences, or leagues whose baseline goal rate runs above average.

How it settles: Three goals or more at full time wins an Over 2.5 pick; exactly two or fewer loses. Own goals count towards the total and, as everywhere on the site, only the 90 minutes are counted.

See today's Top 10 Over 2.5 list →
Both Teams To Score (GG)

Both Teams To Score — GG on most coupons — asks only whether each side finds the net at least once. Who wins is irrelevant, which is why the list often prefers two mid-table attacking sides over a one-sided fixture between a giant and a defensive minnow.

How it settles: Both teams must score at least one goal in the 90 minutes. 1-1, 2-1 and 3-2 all win; 2-0, 1-0 and 0-0 all lose. Own goals count for the team credited with the goal in the official record.

See today's Top 10 BTTS list →
First Half Over 0.5 Goals

This market asks a single question: will there be at least one goal before half time, by either team? It is the shortest question on the site, which is why the list is ranked against a much higher bar than the others.

How it settles: Any goal scored in the first half wins the pick, no matter who scores it. A goalless first half loses even if the second half produces five, because the market is settled on the half-time score alone.

See today's Top 10 1H Over 0.5 list →
Leading At Half Time

This list backs a named team to be ahead when the half-time whistle goes. It is not a bet on the final result: a side can lead at the break, lose the match, and the pick still wins.

How it settles: The named team must be in front on the half-time score. Level at the break loses, including 0-0, and the second half has no bearing on it.

See today's Top 10 HT Win list →
Most Scoring Half

Most Scoring Half asks which period of the match contains more goals: the first half, the second half, or neither, when both halves produce the same number. All goals by both teams are counted together, so this is a bet on the shape of the game rather than on who wins it.

How it settles: The half-time score gives the first-half total; the rest of the full-time score gives the second-half total. The larger total wins the pick, and Equal wins when the two are the same — including a 0-0, which counts as nil apiece rather than as no result.

See today's Top 10 Most Scoring Half list →
Over 8.5 Match Corners

This market counts every corner awarded to both teams across the match. Over 8.5 means nine or more. Corner volume tracks territory rather than quality, so the model favours attacking sides that spend the game pushing a deep-lying opponent back.

How it settles: Nine corners or more wins the pick; eight or fewer loses. Only corners actually taken are counted in the official record, and the total is settled from the league data feed once the match is complete.

See today's Top 10 Corners list →
Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards

This market counts the yellow cards shown to both teams across the match. Over 2.5 means three or more. Booking volume is driven by how a fixture is refereed and how often the two sides foul, which is why derbies and relegation matches sit near the top of the list.

How it settles: Three yellow cards or more wins the pick. The model counts yellows only, from the league data feed. Bookmakers that settle in booking points instead — commonly 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red — can grade the same match differently, so check the rule at your book before backing a card pick.

See today's Top 10 Cards list →

Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC: frequently asked questions FAQ

Who is predicted to win in Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC?

Our expected-goals model's strongest call on this fixture is 1H Over 0.5 in the First Half Over 0.5 Goals market, at 78% modelled probability. That is a probability, not a forecast of a certainty.

What is the tactical preview and xG analysis for Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC?

Our expected goals model projects 3.24 for Ipswich Town FC and 1.41 for Liverpool FC, a combined 4.65 goals. Ipswich Town FC have taken W-W-D-D-W-D-L-W-W-D from their last 10 completed matches. Liverpool FC have taken D-D-D-L-D-L-W-W-W-L from their last 10. Across 2 previous meetings on record, Ipswich Town FC have won 0, Liverpool FC 2, with 0 drawn.

Which betting markets are modelled for Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC?

This fixture is modelled in 8 markets: First Half Over 0.5 Goals, Over 8.5 Match Corners, Over 2.5 Goals, Match Winner, Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards, Both Teams To Score (GG), Most Scoring Half and Leading At Half Time. Each is explained on this page, and the full set of selections and probabilities is in the model panel above.

When does Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC kick off?

Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC in the Premier League kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 19:00 UTC. Every prediction on this page is settled from the 90-minute score.

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