SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs PSV prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.75 to 3.93 on expected goals, with 92.2% for over 2.5 goals in the Eredivisie.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden host PSV in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 8 November at 15:45 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.75 for the hosts and 3.93 for the visitors, a combined 5.68 goals against a competition norm of 3.24.
PSV are a clear favourite at 75.6%, with the draw back at 12.2%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — last 10: W-W-D-W-D-W-D-L-L-L (most recent first). That is 23 scored and 18 conceded, 2.30 and 1.80 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-D-W-L-L across 5, 12 scored and 11 conceded.
PSV — last 10: W-D-L-W-L-W-W-W-W-W (most recent first). That is 33 scored and 11 conceded, 3.30 and 1.10 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-W-W-W across 5, 14 scored and 8 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 5.68 goals in this fixture, above the Eredivisie norm of 3.24, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
PSV carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.93 against 1.75. Both teams to score sits at 81.4%, and over 2.5 goals at 92.2% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 12.1% |
| Draw | 12.2% |
| PSV win | 75.6% |
| Both teams to score | 81.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 92.2% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-3 at 6%, 1-4 at 5.9%, 2-3 at 5.3%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 87.9% confidence. First-half expected goals 2.04, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. PSV: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 83% confidence. Expected total goals 4.53, from 1.52 - 3.01 (Eredivisie baseline 1.59 per side). PSV: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 74.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.52 - 3.01, so the weaker attack still projects 1.52 goals. PSV: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 73% confidence. Expected corners 12.4 against a league baseline of 9.6. PSV: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 68.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.52 - 3.01 against a Eredivisie baseline of 1.59 per side; PSV rate 1.12 clear on the fitted ratings. PSV: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 68.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.52 - 3.01 against a Eredivisie baseline of 1.59 per side; PSV rate 1.12 clear on the fitted ratings. PSV: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 61% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.3 against a league baseline of 3.9. PSV: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 53.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.52 - 3.01, which projects a 28% chance of a level score at the break. PSV: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 49% confidence. Expected goals 2.04 before the break and 2.49 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. PSV: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
Corners & Cards Outlook
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden average 3.8 corners a game and concede 6.5, over a rolling 10-match sample. PSV average 6.5 and concede 4.0 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 10.3 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.7 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.9; the visitors 1.6 and 1.6. That is a combined 3.3 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-3 — an PSV win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 6%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an PSV win at 75.6%, with the draw at 12.2%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
