SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 3.91 to 0.70 on expected goals, with 83.8% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
SC Freiburg host 1. FC Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, kicking off Sunday 8 November at 16:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 3.91 for the hosts and 0.70 for the visitors, a combined 4.61 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
SC Freiburg are a clear favourite at 90.5%, with the draw back at 6.9%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
SC Freiburg — last 10: W-L-L-W-D-W-W-W-W-L (most recent first). That is 24 scored and 14 conceded, 2.40 and 1.40 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 9 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-W-W-W-W across 5, 16 scored and 6 conceded.
1. FC Union Berlin — last 10: D-D-D-W-L-L-L-D-W-W (most recent first). That is 14 scored and 20 conceded, 1.40 and 2.00 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-L-L-W-L across 5, 5 scored and 16 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 0, 1. FC Union Berlin 3, with 3 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 15 Mar 2026: SC Freiburg 0-1 1. FC Union Berlin.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 4.61 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
SC Freiburg carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.91 against 0.70. Both teams to score sits at 49.5%, and over 2.5 goals at 83.8% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 90.5% |
| Draw | 6.9% |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 2.5% |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83.8% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 3-0 at 10%, 4-0 at 9.7%, 2-0 at 7.6%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 78.6% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.46, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 69.1% confidence. Expected goals 2.26 - 0.99 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.61 per side; SC Freiburg rate 0.70 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 69.1% confidence. Expected goals 2.26 - 0.99 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.61 per side; SC Freiburg rate 0.70 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 62.9% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.4 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 57.8% confidence. Expected total goals 3.25, from 2.26 - 0.99 (Bundesliga baseline 1.61 per side).
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 54.2% confidence. Expected goals 2.26 - 0.99, so the weaker attack still projects 0.99 goals.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Under 8.5 Corners — 54% confidence. Expected corners 8.4 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 52.7% confidence. Expected goals 2.26 - 0.99, which projects a 35% chance of a level score at the break.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 45.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.46 before the break and 1.79 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
Corners & Cards Outlook
SC Freiburg average 4.2 corners a game and concede 4.1, over a rolling 20-match sample. 1. FC Union Berlin average 4.0 and concede 5.9 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 8.2 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.5 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.7; the visitors 2.2 and 1.8. That is a combined 3.7 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 3-0 — a SC Freiburg win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 10%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a SC Freiburg win at 90.5%, with the draw at 6.9%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
