CS Marítimo vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.28 to 4.17 on expected goals, with 90.8% for over 2.5 goals in the Primeira Liga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
CS Marítimo host Sport Lisboa e Benfica in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Saturday 5 September at 17:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.28 for the hosts and 4.17 for the visitors, a combined 5.44 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
Sport Lisboa e Benfica are a clear favourite at 85%, with the draw back at 9%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
CS Marítimo — last 10: L-D-W-W-L-W-L-D-L-L (most recent first). That is 14 scored and 17 conceded, 1.40 and 1.70 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-W-W-D-L across 5, 7 scored and 6 conceded.
Sport Lisboa e Benfica — last 10: W-D-W-D-D-W-W-W-D-W (most recent first). That is 28 scored and 10 conceded, 2.80 and 1.00 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-W-D-W-D across 5, 15 scored and 5 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 4 meetings on record, CS Marítimo have won 0, Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4, with 0 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 12 Mar 2023: CS Marítimo 0-3 Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 5.44 goals in this fixture, above the Primeira Liga norm of 2.70, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Sport Lisboa e Benfica carry the larger share of that expectation, at 4.17 against 1.28. Both teams to score sits at 71.3%, and over 2.5 goals at 90.8% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| CS Marítimo win | 6.1% |
| Draw | 9% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 85% |
| Both teams to score | 71.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90.8% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-4 at 7%, 1-3 at 6.7%, 1-5 at 5.8%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 88% confidence. Benfica's high-octane attack strongly favors an early breakthrough in the first half.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 82% confidence. Combined expected scoring rate exceeds 5 goals per match based on current form metrics.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 78% confidence. Benfica's dominant away form (4.5 GF per game) makes them overwhelming favorites against Marítimo.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 78% confidence. Class and statistical form gap overwhelmingly favor a Benfica victory.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 70% confidence. Benfica's relentless attacking pressure typically generates high corner counts.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 68% confidence. Defending against Benfica's potent attack usually forces tactical fouls from the hosts.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 65% confidence. Benfica's superior firepower suggests they will control the game and lead by halftime.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 61% confidence. Marítimo's solid home scoring rate (1.5 GF) gives them a decent chance to breach Benfica's defense.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 52% confidence. Open spaces late in the game often lead to more goals after tactical adjustments.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-4 — an Sport Lisboa e Benfica win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 7%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an Sport Lisboa e Benfica win at 85%, with the draw at 9%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
