CR Flamengo vs CA Paranaense prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 2.25 to 0.95 on expected goals, with 62% for over 2.5 goals in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
CR Flamengo host CA Paranaense in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A, kicking off Wednesday 18 November at 23:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 2.25 for the hosts and 0.95 for the visitors, a combined 3.20 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
CR Flamengo are a clear favourite at 65.7%, with the draw back at 21%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
CR Flamengo — last 1: W (most recent first). That is 3 scored and 1 conceded, 3.00 and 1.00 per game. Both teams scored in 1 of the 1, and 1 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W across 1, 3 scored and 1 conceded.
CA Paranaense — last 1: L (most recent first). That is 1 scored and 3 conceded, 1.00 and 3.00 per game. Both teams scored in 1 of the 1, and 1 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.20 goals in this fixture, above the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A norm of 2.70, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
CR Flamengo carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.25 against 0.95. Both teams to score sits at 55.9%, and over 2.5 goals at 62% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| CR Flamengo win | 65.7% |
| Draw | 21% |
| CA Paranaense win | 13.4% |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 2-0 at 10.3%, 1-1 at 9.8%, 2-1 at 9.8%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 71% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.21, at a fitted 44% share of the match total. CA Paranaense are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 69.2% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.9 against a league baseline of 3.9. CA Paranaense are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 59.4% confidence. Expected corners 9.6 against a league baseline of 9.6. CA Paranaense are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 53% confidence. Expected goals 1.52 - 1.22, so the weaker attack still projects 1.22 goals. CA Paranaense are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 50.9% confidence. Expected total goals 2.75, from 1.52 - 1.22 (Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline 1.39 per side). CA Paranaense are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 46.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.52 - 1.22 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.39 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. CA Paranaense are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 46.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.52 - 1.22 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.39 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. CA Paranaense are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 45% confidence. Expected goals 1.21 before the break and 1.53 after, at a fitted 44% first-half share. CA Paranaense are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 35.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.52 - 1.22, which projects a 42% chance of a level score at the break. CA Paranaense are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-0 — a CR Flamengo win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 10.3%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a CR Flamengo win at 65.7%, with the draw at 21%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
