Parma Calcio 1913 vs AC Monza prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.15 to 1.65 on expected goals, with 27.1% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Parma Calcio 1913 host AC Monza in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 6 September at 13:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.15 for the hosts and 1.65 for the visitors, a combined 1.80 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
AC Monza are a clear favourite at 75.7%, with the draw back at 21.9%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Parma Calcio 1913 — last 10: L-L-W-L-L-L-W-W-D-D (most recent first). That is 7 scored and 11 conceded, 0.70 and 1.10 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 10, and 1 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-W-L-W-D across 5, 5 scored and 5 conceded.
AC Monza — last 10: L-L-L-L-W-L-L-L-L-L (most recent first). That is 7 scored and 24 conceded, 0.70 and 2.40 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-W-L-L across 5, 3 scored and 10 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 2 meetings on record, Parma Calcio 1913 have won 1, AC Monza 0, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 15 Mar 2025: AC Monza 1-1 Parma Calcio 1913.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 1.80 goals in this fixture, below the Serie A norm of 2.72, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
AC Monza carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.65 against 0.15. Both teams to score sits at 11.8%, and over 2.5 goals at 27.1% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 2.5% |
| Draw | 21.9% |
| AC Monza win | 75.7% |
| Both teams to score | 11.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.1% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-1 at 26.7%, 0-2 at 22.5%, 0-0 at 17%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 62.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.37 - 0.71, so the weaker attack still projects 0.71 goals.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 61.9% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.4 against a league baseline of 3.7.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 61.6% confidence. Expected total goals 2.08, from 1.37 - 0.71 (Serie A baseline 1.34 per side).
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 60.2% confidence. First-half expected goals 0.94, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Under 8.5 Corners — 52% confidence. Expected corners 8.5 against a league baseline of 8.8.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 48.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.37 - 0.71 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; Parma Calcio 1913 rate 0.59 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 48.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.37 - 0.71 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; Parma Calcio 1913 rate 0.59 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 40.2% confidence. Expected goals 0.94 before the break and 1.14 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 29.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.37 - 0.71, which projects a 47% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-1 — an AC Monza win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 26.7%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an AC Monza win at 75.7%, with the draw at 21.9%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
