Deportivo Alavés vs RC Deportivo La Coruña prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.24 to 1.31 on expected goals, with 47% for over 2.5 goals in the Primera Division.
706 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis Hide full analysis
Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Deportivo Alavés host RC Deportivo La Coruña in the Primera Division, kicking off Saturday 21 November at 13:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.24 for the hosts and 1.31 for the visitors, a combined 2.55 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
There is almost nothing between these two on the numbers, and the draw at 29.9% is a live outcome rather than a formality.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Deportivo Alavés — last 10: D-W-L-L-D-L-D-L-D-W (most recent first). That is 11 scored and 17 conceded, 1.10 and 1.70 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-D-D-L-W across 5, 7 scored and 5 conceded.
RC Deportivo La Coruña — last 10: D-W-L-D-L-D-L-D-W-W (most recent first). That is 13 scored and 12 conceded, 1.30 and 1.20 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-L-L-D-W across 5, 6 scored and 7 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.55 goals in this fixture, below the Primera Division norm of 2.70, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
RC Deportivo La Coruña carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.31 against 1.24. Both teams to score sits at 53.6%, and over 2.5 goals at 47% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 33.4% |
| Draw | 29.9% |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 36.7% |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 14.3%, 0-0 at 9.4%, 0-1 at 8.5%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 80.9% confidence. Expected corners 12.6 against a league baseline of 9.7.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 67.6% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.11, at a fitted 44% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 65.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.8 against a league baseline of 4.4.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 50.9% confidence. Expected total goals 2.52, from 1.44 - 1.07 (Primera Division baseline 1.32 per side).
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 49.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.44 - 1.07, so the weaker attack still projects 1.07 goals.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 45.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.44 - 1.07 against a Primera Division baseline of 1.32 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 45.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.44 - 1.07 against a Primera Division baseline of 1.32 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 43.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.11 before the break and 1.41 after, at a fitted 44% first-half share.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 33.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.44 - 1.07, which projects a 44% chance of a level score at the break.
Corners & Cards Outlook
Deportivo Alavés average 5.3 corners a game and concede 5.3, over a rolling 12-match sample. RC Deportivo La Coruña average 5.3 and concede 5.3 across 12. Taken at face value that points to roughly 10.7 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.9 yellows a game to their opponents' 2.4; the visitors 1.9 and 2.4. That is a combined 3.8 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-1 — an RC Deportivo La Coruña win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 8.5%.
Confidence: Low. The model puts an RC Deportivo La Coruña win at 36.7%, with the draw at 29.9%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 14.3%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and on a fixture priced this close that is a live possibility.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
