ES Troyes AC vs RC Strasbourg Alsace prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 2.07 to 0.36 on expected goals, with 43.8% for over 2.5 goals in the Ligue 1.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
ES Troyes AC host RC Strasbourg Alsace in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 6 September at 13:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 2.07 for the hosts and 0.36 for the visitors, a combined 2.43 goals against a competition norm of 2.78.
ES Troyes AC are a clear favourite at 77.1%, with the draw back at 18.4%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
ES Troyes AC — last 10: W-D-D-L-D-L-L-L-D-L (most recent first). That is 9 scored and 18 conceded, 0.90 and 1.80 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-D-D-L-L across 5, 3 scored and 6 conceded.
RC Strasbourg Alsace — last 10: W-L-W-W-D-L-W-L-W-W (most recent first). That is 20 scored and 21 conceded, 2.00 and 2.10 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 9 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-W-D-W-W across 5, 9 scored and 10 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 4 meetings on record, ES Troyes AC have won 1, RC Strasbourg Alsace 0, with 3 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 21 May 2023: ES Troyes AC 1-1 RC Strasbourg Alsace.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.43 goals in this fixture, below the Ligue 1 norm of 2.78, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
ES Troyes AC carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.07 against 0.36. Both teams to score sits at 27.2%, and over 2.5 goals at 43.8% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| ES Troyes AC win | 77.1% |
| Draw | 18.4% |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 27.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 2-0 at 18.9%, 1-0 at 17.4%, 3-0 at 13%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 74.5% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.41, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 60.3% confidence. Expected corners 9.9 against a league baseline of 9.6.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Under 2.5 Cards — 57.9% confidence. Expected yellow cards 2.3 against a league baseline of 3.7.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 55.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.32 - 1.80, so the weaker attack still projects 1.32 goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 54.5% confidence. Expected total goals 3.12, from 1.32 - 1.80 (Ligue 1 baseline 1.41 per side).
- Match Winner: Away Win — 45.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.32 - 1.80 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.41 per side; RC Strasbourg Alsace rate 0.54 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 45.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.32 - 1.80 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.41 per side; RC Strasbourg Alsace rate 0.54 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.41 before the break and 1.72 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 31.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.32 - 1.80, which projects a 38% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-0 — a ES Troyes AC win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 18.9%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a ES Troyes AC win at 77.1%, with the draw at 18.4%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
