Hamburger SV vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.15 to 0.15 on expected goals, with 0.4% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Hamburger SV host 1. FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga, kicking off Sunday 6 September at 13:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.15 for the hosts and 0.15 for the visitors, a combined 0.30 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
There is almost nothing between these two on the numbers, and the draw at 76.2% is a live outcome rather than a formality.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Hamburger SV — last 10: L-D-W-W-L-L-L-D-L-D (most recent first). That is 12 scored and 20 conceded, 1.20 and 2.00 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-L-D-D-L across 5, 6 scored and 7 conceded.
1. FSV Mainz 05 — last 10: D-W-L-W-L-D-L-W-W-W (most recent first). That is 15 scored and 12 conceded, 1.50 and 1.20 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-W-D-W-W across 5, 9 scored and 3 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 2 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 1, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 20 Feb 2026: 1. FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SV.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 0.30 goals in this fixture, below the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
Hamburger SV carry the larger share of that expectation, at 0.15 against 0.15. Both teams to score sits at 2.2%, and over 2.5 goals at 0.4% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 11.9% |
| Draw | 76.2% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 11.9% |
| Both teams to score | 2.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0.4% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-0 at 74.3%, 0-1 at 10.9%, 1-0 at 10.9%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 83.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 5.0 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 62.9% confidence. Expected corners 10.2 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 62.6% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.21, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 61.6% confidence. Expected total goals 2.68, from 1.28 - 1.40 (Bundesliga baseline 1.59 per side).
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 55.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.40, so the weaker attack still projects 1.28 goals.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 40% confidence. Expected goals 1.21 before the break and 1.47 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 35.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.40 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; 1. FSV Mainz 05 rate 0.33 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 35% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.40 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; 1. FSV Mainz 05 rate 0.33 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 26.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.40, which projects a 42% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-0 — a draw, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 74.3%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a draw at 76.2%, with the draw at 76.2%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
