Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.99 to 1.07 on expected goals, with 59% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Bayer 04 Leverkusen host SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 21 November at 14:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.99 for the hosts and 1.07 for the visitors, a combined 3.06 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are a clear favourite at 57.4%, with the draw back at 24%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — last 10: W-L-L-W-W-W-D-W-L-D (most recent first). That is 21 scored and 18 conceded, 2.10 and 1.80 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-W-W-W-D across 5, 11 scored and 6 conceded.
SC Paderborn 07 — last 10: D-D-W-D-L-W-L-L-D-L (most recent first). That is 10 scored and 14 conceded, 1.00 and 1.40 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-D-L-D-L across 5, 4 scored and 8 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 4 meetings on record, Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 0, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 19 Jan 2020: SC Paderborn 07 1-4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.06 goals in this fixture, below the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.99 against 1.07. Both teams to score sits at 58%, and over 2.5 goals at 59% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 57.4% |
| Draw | 24% |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 18.6% |
| Both teams to score | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 11.3%, 2-1 at 9.9%, 2-0 at 9.3%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 79.7% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.5 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 74.6% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.36, at a fitted 44% share of the match total.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 69.1% confidence. Expected corners 11.5 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 67% confidence. Expected goals 2.13 - 0.95 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.54 per side; Bayer 04 Leverkusen rate 0.67 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 67% confidence. Expected goals 2.13 - 0.95 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.54 per side; Bayer 04 Leverkusen rate 0.67 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 54.7% confidence. Expected total goals 3.07, from 2.13 - 0.95 (Bundesliga baseline 1.54 per side).
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 53% confidence. Expected goals 2.13 - 0.95, so the weaker attack still projects 0.95 goals.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 47.2% confidence. Expected goals 2.13 - 0.95, which projects a 37% chance of a level score at the break.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 46.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.36 before the break and 1.72 after, at a fitted 44% first-half share.
Corners & Cards Outlook
Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 6.9 corners a game and concede 3.3, over a rolling 20-match sample. SC Paderborn 07 average 4.6 and concede 5.6 across 9. Taken at face value that points to roughly 11.4 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 2.1 yellows a game to their opponents' 2.7; the visitors 1.3 and 1.3. That is a combined 3.4 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-1 — a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 9.9%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win at 57.4%, with the draw at 24%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 11.3%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
