SV 07 Elversberg vs SC Freiburg prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.54 to 2.83 on expected goals, with 81.1% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
SV 07 Elversberg host SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 21 November at 14:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.54 for the hosts and 2.83 for the visitors, a combined 4.37 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
SC Freiburg are a clear favourite at 63.7%, with the draw back at 18.1%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
SV 07 Elversberg — last 9: L-W-L-W-L-D-L-W-W (most recent first). That is 17 scored and 18 conceded, 1.89 and 2.00 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 9, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-W-L-W across 4, 12 scored and 8 conceded.
SC Freiburg — last 10: W-W-L-L-W-D-W-W-W-W (most recent first). That is 24 scored and 11 conceded, 2.40 and 1.10 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-L-D-W-L across 5, 8 scored and 8 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 4.37 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
SC Freiburg carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.83 against 1.54. Both teams to score sits at 74.6%, and over 2.5 goals at 81.1% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| SV 07 Elversberg win | 18.2% |
| Draw | 18.1% |
| SC Freiburg win | 63.7% |
| Both teams to score | 74.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81.1% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-2 at 7.8%, 1-3 at 7.4%, 1-1 at 6.2%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 78.9% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.49, at a fitted 44% share of the match total.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 64.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.67 - 1.72, so the weaker attack still projects 1.67 goals.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 62.7% confidence. Expected corners 10.1 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 59.4% confidence. Expected total goals 3.39, from 1.67 - 1.72 (Bundesliga baseline 1.54 per side).
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 57.9% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.4 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 47.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.49 before the break and 1.89 after, at a fitted 44% first-half share.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 38.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.67 - 1.72 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.54 per side; SC Freiburg rate 0.20 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 38.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.67 - 1.72 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.54 per side; SC Freiburg rate 0.20 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 34.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.67 - 1.72, which projects a 37% chance of a level score at the break.
Corners & Cards Outlook
SV 07 Elversberg average 4.3 corners a game and concede 7.7, over a rolling 9-match sample. SC Freiburg average 4.1 and concede 3.8 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 8.4 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.8 yellows a game to their opponents' 2.0; the visitors 1.7 and 1.5. That is a combined 3.4 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-2 — an SC Freiburg win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 7.8%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an SC Freiburg win at 63.7%, with the draw at 18.1%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
