Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.76 to 3.15 on expected goals, with 74.8% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Borussia Mönchengladbach host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 21 November at 14:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.76 for the hosts and 3.15 for the visitors, a combined 3.91 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
Borussia Dortmund are a clear favourite at 83%, with the draw back at 11.8%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach — last 10: L-D-W-L-L-L-L-L-L-W (most recent first). That is 16 scored and 25 conceded, 1.60 and 2.50 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 9 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-L-L-L-W across 5, 11 scored and 10 conceded.
Borussia Dortmund — last 10: W-W-D-W-D-D-W-W-W-W (most recent first). That is 18 scored and 8 conceded, 1.80 and 0.80 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 5 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-D-W-W-W across 5, 8 scored and 4 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, Borussia Dortmund 4, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 3 May 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.91 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Borussia Dortmund carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.15 against 0.76. Both teams to score sits at 51.6%, and over 2.5 goals at 74.8% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 5.1% |
| Draw | 11.8% |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 83% |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.8% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-3 at 10.4%, 0-2 at 10%, 0-4 at 8.2%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 77.8% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.3 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 72.4% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.22, at a fitted 44% share of the match total.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 63.6% confidence. Expected goals 0.93 - 1.85 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.54 per side; Borussia Dortmund rate 0.95 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 63.6% confidence. Expected goals 0.93 - 1.85 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.54 per side; Borussia Dortmund rate 0.95 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 54.5% confidence. Expected corners 9.3 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 52.7% confidence. Expected total goals 2.77, from 0.93 - 1.85 (Bundesliga baseline 1.54 per side).
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 50.5% confidence. Expected goals 0.93 - 1.85, so the weaker attack still projects 0.93 goals.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 45.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.22 before the break and 1.55 after, at a fitted 44% first-half share.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 45.2% confidence. Expected goals 0.93 - 1.85, which projects a 40% chance of a level score at the break.
Corners & Cards Outlook
Borussia Mönchengladbach average 3.8 corners a game and concede 5.4, over a rolling 20-match sample. Borussia Dortmund average 5.5 and concede 3.9 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 9.3 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 2.9 yellows a game to their opponents' 2.5; the visitors 1.8 and 1.5. That is a combined 4.7 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-3 — an Borussia Dortmund win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 10.4%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an Borussia Dortmund win at 83%, with the draw at 11.8%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
