1. FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.82 to 4.46 on expected goals, with 89.6% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
- FC Union Berlin host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 21 November at 14:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.82 for the hosts and 4.46 for the visitors, a combined 5.28 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
RB Leipzig are a clear favourite at 92.3%, with the draw back at 5.5%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
1. FC Union Berlin — last 10: L-D-D-D-W-L-L-L-D-W (most recent first). That is 11 scored and 21 conceded, 1.10 and 2.10 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-D-W-L-D across 5, 6 scored and 7 conceded.
RB Leipzig — last 10: W-L-W-W-L-W-L-W-L-W (most recent first). That is 29 scored and 16 conceded, 2.90 and 1.60 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 5 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-L-L-L-L across 5, 5 scored and 15 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Union Berlin have won 1, RB Leipzig 3, with 2 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 24 Apr 2026: RB Leipzig 3-1 1. FC Union Berlin.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 5.28 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
RB Leipzig carry the larger share of that expectation, at 4.46 against 0.82. Both teams to score sits at 55.7%, and over 2.5 goals at 89.6% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 2.2% |
| Draw | 5.5% |
| RB Leipzig win | 92.3% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89.6% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-4 at 8.4%, 0-3 at 7.6%, 0-5 at 7.5%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 81% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.57, at a fitted 44% share of the match total.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 62.7% confidence. Expected corners 10.1 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 62% confidence. Expected goals 1.20 - 2.35 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.54 per side; RB Leipzig rate 0.94 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 62% confidence. Expected goals 1.20 - 2.35 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.54 per side; RB Leipzig rate 0.94 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 61% confidence. Expected total goals 3.55, from 1.20 - 2.35 (Bundesliga baseline 1.54 per side).
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 55.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.20 - 2.35, so the weaker attack still projects 1.20 goals.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 53.1% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.1 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 51.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.20 - 2.35, which projects a 34% chance of a level score at the break.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 48.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.57 before the break and 1.98 after, at a fitted 44% first-half share.
Corners & Cards Outlook
- FC Union Berlin average 3.8 corners a game and concede 5.9, over a rolling 20-match sample. RB Leipzig average 5.2 and concede 4.9 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 8.9 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 2.2 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.8; the visitors 1.3 and 1.4. That is a combined 3.5 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-4 — an RB Leipzig win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 8.4%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an RB Leipzig win at 92.3%, with the draw at 5.5%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
