Bologna FC 1909 vs US Sassuolo Calcio prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.15 to 1.10 on expected goals, with 13.2% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Bologna FC 1909 host US Sassuolo Calcio in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 6 September at 16:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.15 for the hosts and 1.10 for the visitors, a combined 1.25 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
US Sassuolo Calcio are a clear favourite at 60.9%, with the draw back at 34.7%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Bologna FC 1909 — last 10: L-D-W-W-D-L-L-W-W-L (most recent first). That is 11 scored and 13 conceded, 1.10 and 1.30 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 10, and 3 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-D-D-L-W across 5, 5 scored and 6 conceded.
US Sassuolo Calcio — last 10: W-L-L-L-L-W-D-W-L-W (most recent first). That is 13 scored and 13 conceded, 1.30 and 1.30 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-L-D-L across 5, 3 scored and 7 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, Bologna FC 1909 have won 3, US Sassuolo Calcio 0, with 3 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 15 Mar 2026: US Sassuolo Calcio 0-1 Bologna FC 1909.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 1.25 goals in this fixture, below the Serie A norm of 2.72, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
US Sassuolo Calcio carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.10 against 0.15. Both teams to score sits at 9.9%, and over 2.5 goals at 13.2% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 4.4% |
| Draw | 34.7% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 60.9% |
| Both teams to score | 9.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 13.2% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-1 at 30.9%, 0-0 at 29.2%, 0-2 at 17.4%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 72.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.9 against a league baseline of 3.7.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 64.2% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.10, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 56.7% confidence. Expected total goals 2.45, from 1.32 - 1.13 (Serie A baseline 1.34 per side).
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 55.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.32 - 1.13, so the weaker attack still projects 1.13 goals.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 52.1% confidence. Expected corners 8.9 against a league baseline of 8.8.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 41.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.10 before the break and 1.35 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 39.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.32 - 1.13 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 39.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.32 - 1.13 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 27.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.32 - 1.13, which projects a 44% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-1 — an US Sassuolo Calcio win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 30.9%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an US Sassuolo Calcio win at 60.9%, with the draw at 34.7%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
