OGC Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain FC prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.24 to 1.90 on expected goals, with 60.7% for over 2.5 goals in the Ligue 1.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
OGC Nice host Paris Saint-Germain FC in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 21 November at 16:15 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.24 for the hosts and 1.90 for the visitors, a combined 3.14 goals against a competition norm of 2.78.
Paris Saint-Germain FC are a clear favourite at 51.4%, with the draw back at 25%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
OGC Nice — last 10: W-W-W-L-W-W-L-D-L-D (most recent first). That is 15 scored and 12 conceded, 1.50 and 1.20 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-W-W-D-D across 5, 10 scored and 5 conceded.
Paris Saint-Germain FC — last 10: W-W-W-W-W-L-W-W-W-L (most recent first). That is 28 scored and 10 conceded, 2.80 and 1.00 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-W-L-W-L across 5, 15 scored and 5 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, OGC Nice have won 1, Paris Saint-Germain FC 4, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 30 Aug 2026: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3-0 OGC Nice.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.14 goals in this fixture, above the Ligue 1 norm of 2.78, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Paris Saint-Germain FC carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.90 against 1.24. Both teams to score sits at 61.8%, and over 2.5 goals at 60.7% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 23.5% |
| Draw | 25% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 51.4% |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 11.5%, 1-2 at 9.7%, 0-2 at 7.8%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 74.8% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.37, at a fitted 44% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 61.3% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.4 against a league baseline of 3.7.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 55% confidence. Expected total goals 3.10, from 1.11 - 1.99 (Ligue 1 baseline 1.36 per side).
- Match Winner: Away Win — 54.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.11 - 1.99 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.36 per side; Paris Saint-Germain FC rate 0.81 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 54.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.11 - 1.99 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.36 per side; Paris Saint-Germain FC rate 0.81 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 54.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.11 - 1.99, so the weaker attack still projects 1.11 goals.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 53.2% confidence. Expected corners 9.0 against a league baseline of 9.6.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 46.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.37 before the break and 1.73 after, at a fitted 44% first-half share.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 42.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.11 - 1.99, which projects a 38% chance of a level score at the break.
Corners & Cards Outlook
OGC Nice average 5.4 corners a game and concede 4.5, over a rolling 20-match sample. Paris Saint-Germain FC average 4.1 and concede 4.9 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 9.5 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.9 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.5; the visitors 2.0 and 1.6. That is a combined 3.8 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-2 — an Paris Saint-Germain FC win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 9.7%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts an Paris Saint-Germain FC win at 51.4%, with the draw at 25%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 11.5%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
