Parma Calcio 1913 vs AS Roma prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.63 to 3.20 on expected goals, with 73.6% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Parma Calcio 1913 host AS Roma in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 21 November at 17:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.63 for the hosts and 3.20 for the visitors, a combined 3.83 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
AS Roma are a clear favourite at 85.9%, with the draw back at 10.4%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Parma Calcio 1913 — last 10: L-W-D-L-L-L-W-L-D-L (most recent first). That is 9 scored and 16 conceded, 0.90 and 1.60 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-D-L-W-D across 5, 4 scored and 7 conceded.
AS Roma — last 10: W-L-W-W-D-W-D-D-W-W (most recent first). That is 25 scored and 13 conceded, 2.50 and 1.30 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 4 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-W-D-D-W across 5, 12 scored and 8 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, Parma Calcio 1913 have won 1, AS Roma 5, with 0 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 10 May 2026: Parma Calcio 1913 2-3 AS Roma.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.83 goals in this fixture, above the Serie A norm of 2.72, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
AS Roma carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.20 against 0.63. Both teams to score sits at 45.3%, and over 2.5 goals at 73.6% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 3.7% |
| Draw | 10.4% |
| AS Roma win | 85.9% |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.6% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-3 at 11.9%, 0-2 at 11.1%, 0-4 at 9.5%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 76.4% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.41, at a fitted 44% share of the match total.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 70.7% confidence. Expected goals 0.81 - 2.39 against a Serie A baseline of 1.37 per side; AS Roma rate 1.25 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 70.7% confidence. Expected goals 0.81 - 2.39 against a Serie A baseline of 1.37 per side; AS Roma rate 1.25 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 64.9% confidence. Expected corners 10.2 against a league baseline of 8.8.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 58.3% confidence. Expected total goals 3.20, from 0.81 - 2.39 (Serie A baseline 1.37 per side).
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 54.8% confidence. Expected goals 0.81 - 2.39, which projects a 34% chance of a level score at the break.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 53.1% confidence. Expected yellow cards 2.9 against a league baseline of 3.7.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 48.9% confidence. Expected goals 0.81 - 2.39, so the weaker attack still projects 0.81 goals.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 46.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.41 before the break and 1.79 after, at a fitted 44% first-half share.
Corners & Cards Outlook
Parma Calcio 1913 average 3.2 corners a game and concede 6.6, over a rolling 20-match sample. AS Roma average 6.2 and concede 3.9 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 9.4 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.3 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.5; the visitors 1.8 and 1.7. That is a combined 3.1 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-3 — an AS Roma win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 11.9%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an AS Roma win at 85.9%, with the draw at 10.4%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
