FC Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.68 to 1.30 on expected goals, with 31.7% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
FC Schalke 04 host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 21 November at 17:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.68 for the hosts and 1.30 for the visitors, a combined 1.98 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
VfB Stuttgart are a clear favourite at 49.9%, with the draw back at 32.2%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
FC Schalke 04 — last 10: L-L-D-L-L-D-W-D-L-L (most recent first). That is 7 scored and 15 conceded, 0.70 and 1.50 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-L-D-D-D across 5, 2 scored and 5 conceded.
VfB Stuttgart — last 10: W-L-W-L-L-W-L-L-W-L (most recent first). That is 15 scored and 17 conceded, 1.50 and 1.70 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-W-L-W-L across 5, 7 scored and 7 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, VfB Stuttgart 1, with 3 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 25 Feb 2023: FC Schalke 04 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 1.98 goals in this fixture, below the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
VfB Stuttgart carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.30 against 0.68. Both teams to score sits at 37.4%, and over 2.5 goals at 31.7% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 17.9% |
| Draw | 32.2% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 49.9% |
| Both teams to score | 37.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.7% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-1 at 16.4%, 0-0 at 15.4%, 1-1 at 13.8%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 77.8% confidence. Expected corners 12.0 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 67.4% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.8 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 66.8% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.13, at a fitted 44% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 51.5% confidence. Expected total goals 2.56, from 1.06 - 1.50 (Bundesliga baseline 1.54 per side).
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 49.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.06 - 1.50, so the weaker attack still projects 1.06 goals.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 49% confidence. Expected goals 1.06 - 1.50 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.54 per side; VfB Stuttgart rate 0.60 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 49% confidence. Expected goals 1.06 - 1.50 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.54 per side; VfB Stuttgart rate 0.60 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 43.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.13 before the break and 1.43 after, at a fitted 44% first-half share.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 34.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.06 - 1.50, which projects a 43% chance of a level score at the break.
Corners & Cards Outlook
FC Schalke 04 average 3.3 corners a game and concede 6.3, over a rolling 9-match sample. VfB Stuttgart average 6.2 and concede 5.3 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 9.5 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.3 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.4; the visitors 1.5 and 2.0. That is a combined 2.8 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-1 — an VfB Stuttgart win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 16.4%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts an VfB Stuttgart win at 49.9%, with the draw at 32.2%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
