SC Corinthians Paulista vs Chapecoense AF prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.81 to 0.77 on expected goals, with 47.7% for over 2.5 goals in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
SC Corinthians Paulista host Chapecoense AF in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A, kicking off Sunday 6 September at 22:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.81 for the hosts and 0.77 for the visitors, a combined 2.58 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
SC Corinthians Paulista are a clear favourite at 60.7%, with the draw back at 25.2%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
SC Corinthians Paulista — we hold no completed matches for this club, so their current form is not something this preview will guess at.
Chapecoense AF — we hold no completed matches for this club, so their current form is not something this preview will guess at.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.58 goals in this fixture, below the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A norm of 2.70, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
SC Corinthians Paulista carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.81 against 0.77. Both teams to score sits at 46.3%, and over 2.5 goals at 47.7% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| SC Corinthians Paulista win | 60.7% |
| Draw | 25.2% |
| Chapecoense AF win | 14.1% |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 2-0 at 12.4%, 1-0 at 12.3%, 1-1 at 11.9%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 72.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.9 against a league baseline of 3.9. Chapecoense AF are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 70.5% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.23, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Chapecoense AF are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 58.4% confidence. Expected corners 9.6 against a league baseline of 9.6. Chapecoense AF are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 51.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.22, so the weaker attack still projects 1.22 goals. Chapecoense AF are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 49.9% confidence. Expected total goals 2.73, from 1.51 - 1.22 (Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline 1.40 per side). Chapecoense AF are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 46.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.22 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.40 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Chapecoense AF are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 46.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.22 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.40 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Chapecoense AF are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 43.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.23 before the break and 1.50 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Chapecoense AF are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 34.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.22, which projects a 41% chance of a level score at the break. Chapecoense AF are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-0 — a SC Corinthians Paulista win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 12.4%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a SC Corinthians Paulista win at 60.7%, with the draw at 25.2%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.