FC Augsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 3.85 to 0.96 on expected goals, with 85.7% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
FC Augsburg host Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 12 September at 13:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 3.85 for the hosts and 0.96 for the visitors, a combined 4.80 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
FC Augsburg are a clear favourite at 86.6%, with the draw back at 8.9%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
FC Augsburg — last 10: W-W-L-W-W-D-W-D-D-L (most recent first). That is 21 scored and 17 conceded, 2.10 and 1.70 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-W-D-D-L across 5, 11 scored and 9 conceded.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — last 10: W-L-D-L-W-W-L-W-W-D (most recent first). That is 25 scored and 17 conceded, 2.50 and 1.70 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-W-W-D across 5, 9 scored and 10 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4, with 0 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 18 Apr 2026: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 4.80 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
FC Augsburg carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.85 against 0.96. Both teams to score sits at 60.6%, and over 2.5 goals at 85.7% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 86.6% |
| Draw | 8.9% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85.7% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 3-0 at 7.8%, 3-1 at 7.5%, 4-0 at 7.5%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 79.4% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.50, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 76.9% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.3 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 65.4% confidence. Expected corners 10.8 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 61.6% confidence. Expected total goals 3.32, from 1.38 - 1.95 (Bundesliga baseline 1.59 per side).
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 59.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.38 - 1.95, so the weaker attack still projects 1.38 goals.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 46.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.50 before the break and 1.83 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 42.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.38 - 1.95 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; Bayer 04 Leverkusen rate 0.58 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 42.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.38 - 1.95 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; Bayer 04 Leverkusen rate 0.58 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 34.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.38 - 1.95, which projects a 36% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 3-0 — a FC Augsburg win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 7.8%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a FC Augsburg win at 86.6%, with the draw at 8.9%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
