SSC Napoli vs Bologna FC 1909 prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.88 to 0.82 on expected goals, with 50.6% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
SSC Napoli host Bologna FC 1909 in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 13 September at 16:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.88 for the hosts and 0.82 for the visitors, a combined 2.70 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
SSC Napoli are a clear favourite at 61.1%, with the draw back at 24.5%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
SSC Napoli — last 10: L-L-W-W-W-L-D-W-L-D (most recent first). That is 16 scored and 11 conceded, 1.60 and 1.10 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 5 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-W-L-W-L across 5, 8 scored and 7 conceded.
Bologna FC 1909 — last 10: D-L-L-D-W-W-D-L-L-W (most recent first). That is 11 scored and 13 conceded, 1.10 and 1.30 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 10, and 3 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-W-W-L-W across 5, 6 scored and 6 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, SSC Napoli have won 1, Bologna FC 1909 3, with 2 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 11 May 2026: SSC Napoli 2-3 Bologna FC 1909.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.70 goals in this fixture, below the Serie A norm of 2.72, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
SSC Napoli carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.88 against 0.82. Both teams to score sits at 48.7%, and over 2.5 goals at 50.6% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 61.1% |
| Draw | 24.5% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 14.4% |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 2-0 at 11.9%, 1-1 at 11.7%, 1-0 at 11.3%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 66% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.06, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. SSC Napoli: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 54% confidence. Expected goals 1.50 - 0.87 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; SSC Napoli rate 0.49 clear on the fitted ratings. SSC Napoli: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 54% confidence. Expected goals 1.50 - 0.87 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; SSC Napoli rate 0.49 clear on the fitted ratings. SSC Napoli: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 53% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.0 against a league baseline of 3.7. SSC Napoli: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 52.9% confidence. Expected total goals 2.36, from 1.50 - 0.87 (Serie A baseline 1.34 per side). SSC Napoli: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Under 8.5 Corners — 52.8% confidence. Expected corners 8.4 against a league baseline of 8.8. SSC Napoli: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 51.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.50 - 0.87, so the weaker attack still projects 0.87 goals. SSC Napoli: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 42.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.06 before the break and 1.30 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. SSC Napoli: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 38% confidence. Expected goals 1.50 - 0.87, which projects a 44% chance of a level score at the break. SSC Napoli: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-0 — a SSC Napoli win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 11.9%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a SSC Napoli win at 61.1%, with the draw at 24.5%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
