Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs Gil Vicente FC prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.75 to 0.42 on expected goals, with 11.2% for over 2.5 goals in the Primeira Liga.
773 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis Hide full analysis
Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Sport Lisboa e Benfica host Gil Vicente FC in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 13 September at 17:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.75 for the hosts and 0.42 for the visitors, a combined 1.16 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
Sport Lisboa e Benfica are a clear favourite at 38.3%, with the draw back at 44.3%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Sport Lisboa e Benfica — last 10: W-W-W-D-W-D-D-W-W-W (most recent first). That is 29 scored and 10 conceded, 2.90 and 1.00 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 9 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-D-D-W-W across 5, 12 scored and 6 conceded.
Gil Vicente FC — last 10: L-D-W-W-L-L-D-W-L-D (most recent first). That is 8 scored and 11 conceded, 0.80 and 1.10 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 10, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 4 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-L-D-D-L across 5, 2 scored and 6 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, Sport Lisboa e Benfica have won 6, Gil Vicente FC 0, with 0 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 2 Mar 2026: Gil Vicente FC 1-2 Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 1.16 goals in this fixture, below the Primeira Liga norm of 2.70, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
Sport Lisboa e Benfica carry the larger share of that expectation, at 0.75 against 0.42. Both teams to score sits at 19.2%, and over 2.5 goals at 11.2% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 38.3% |
| Draw | 44.3% |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 17.4% |
| Both teams to score | 19.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 11.2% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-0 at 32.5%, 1-0 at 22.1%, 0-1 at 11.8%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 83.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.9 against a league baseline of 3.9. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 75.2% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.54, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 73.7% confidence. Expected goals 2.63 - 0.80 against a Primeira Liga baseline of 1.33 per side; Sport Lisboa e Benfica rate 1.07 clear on the fitted ratings. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 73.7% confidence. Expected goals 2.63 - 0.80 against a Primeira Liga baseline of 1.33 per side; Sport Lisboa e Benfica rate 1.07 clear on the fitted ratings. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 55.3% confidence. Expected total goals 3.43, from 2.63 - 0.80 (Primeira Liga baseline 1.33 per side). Sport Lisboa e Benfica: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 53.4% confidence. Expected corners 9.2 against a league baseline of 9.6. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 53.3% confidence. Expected goals 2.63 - 0.80, which projects a 32% chance of a level score at the break. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 51.3% confidence. Expected goals 2.63 - 0.80, so the weaker attack still projects 0.80 goals. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.54 before the break and 1.89 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: only 4 days since the last match and 3 matches in the last fortnight.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-0 — a draw, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 32.5%.
Confidence: Low. The model puts a draw at 44.3%, with the draw at 44.3%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and on a fixture priced this close that is a live possibility.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
