Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia CF prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 4.79 to 0.15 on expected goals, with 86.9% for over 2.5 goals in the Primera Division.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Deportivo Alavés host Valencia CF in the Primera Division, kicking off Tuesday 15 September at 18:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 4.79 for the hosts and 0.15 for the visitors, a combined 4.94 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
Deportivo Alavés are a clear favourite at 98.4%, with the draw back at 1.5%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Deportivo Alavés — last 3: W-W-D (most recent first). That is 7 scored and 3 conceded, 2.33 and 1.00 per game. Both teams scored in 2 of the 3, and 1 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-W across 2, 6 scored and 2 conceded.
Valencia CF — last 10: L-L-L-D-W-W-D-W-L-W (most recent first). That is 12 scored and 17 conceded, 1.20 and 1.70 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-W-W-D-L across 5, 7 scored and 8 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 4.94 goals in this fixture, above the Primera Division norm of 2.70, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Deportivo Alavés carry the larger share of that expectation, at 4.79 against 0.15. Both teams to score sits at 13.9%, and over 2.5 goals at 86.9% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 98.4% |
| Draw | 1.5% |
| Valencia CF win | 0.1% |
| Both teams to score | 13.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86.9% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 4-0 at 15.9%, 5-0 at 15.2%, 3-0 at 13.2%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 72.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.1 against a league baseline of 4.4. Deportivo Alavés: only 3 days since the last match.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 70.4% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.05, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Deportivo Alavés: only 3 days since the last match.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 55.7% confidence. Expected corners 9.4 against a league baseline of 9.7. Deportivo Alavés: only 3 days since the last match.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 55.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.06, so the weaker attack still projects 1.06 goals. Deportivo Alavés: only 3 days since the last match.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 53.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.06 against a Primera Division baseline of 1.29 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Deportivo Alavés: only 3 days since the last match.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 53.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.06 against a Primera Division baseline of 1.29 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Deportivo Alavés: only 3 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 49.4% confidence. Expected total goals 2.34, from 1.28 - 1.06 (Primera Division baseline 1.29 per side). Deportivo Alavés: only 3 days since the last match.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 43.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.05 before the break and 1.29 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Deportivo Alavés: only 3 days since the last match.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 40.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.06, which projects a 45% chance of a level score at the break. Deportivo Alavés: only 3 days since the last match.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 4-0 — a Deportivo Alavés win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 15.9%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a Deportivo Alavés win at 98.4%, with the draw at 1.5%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
