SV Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.22 to 3.82 on expected goals, with 87.9% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
616 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis Hide full analysis
Match Overview & What Is At Stake
SV Werder Bremen host FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 19 September at 13:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.22 for the hosts and 3.82 for the visitors, a combined 5.04 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
FC Augsburg are a clear favourite at 82.6%, with the draw back at 10.4%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
SV Werder Bremen — last 10: D-W-L-L-L-L-D-W-L-L (most recent first). That is 12 scored and 19 conceded, 1.20 and 1.90 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-L-L-W-L across 5, 8 scored and 9 conceded.
FC Augsburg — last 10: D-W-W-L-W-W-D-W-D-D (most recent first). That is 21 scored and 14 conceded, 2.10 and 1.40 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-L-W-W-D across 5, 10 scored and 8 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, SV Werder Bremen have won 2, FC Augsburg 2, with 2 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 2 May 2026: SV Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 5.04 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
FC Augsburg carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.82 against 1.22. Both teams to score sits at 69.4%, and over 2.5 goals at 87.9% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 7% |
| Draw | 10.4% |
| FC Augsburg win | 82.6% |
| Both teams to score | 69.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 87.9% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-3 at 7.3%, 1-4 at 7%, 0-3 at 6%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 72.7% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.18, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 63.2% confidence. Expected corners 10.3 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 60.5% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.5 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 55.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.33 - 1.30, so the weaker attack still projects 1.30 goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 52.2% confidence. Expected total goals 2.63, from 1.33 - 1.30 (Bundesliga baseline 1.59 per side).
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44% confidence. Expected goals 1.18 before the break and 1.44 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 41.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.33 - 1.30 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; FC Augsburg rate 0.19 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 41.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.33 - 1.30 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; FC Augsburg rate 0.19 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 32.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.33 - 1.30, which projects a 42% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-3 — an FC Augsburg win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 7.3%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an FC Augsburg win at 82.6%, with the draw at 10.4%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
