Toulouse FC vs Le Havre AC prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.60 to 1.39 on expected goals, with 57.4% for over 2.5 goals in the Ligue 1.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Toulouse FC host Le Havre AC in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 19 September at 18:45 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.60 for the hosts and 1.39 for the visitors, a combined 2.99 goals against a competition norm of 2.78.
Toulouse FC hold the edge at 41%, but not by enough to treat the result as settled.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Toulouse FC — last 10: D-L-D-L-D-W-W-D-L-L (most recent first). That is 12 scored and 18 conceded, 1.20 and 1.80 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-L-W-D-L across 5, 4 scored and 10 conceded.
Le Havre AC — last 10: D-L-D-L-W-L-D-D-D-D (most recent first). That is 11 scored and 12 conceded, 1.10 and 1.20 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 2 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-W-D-D-D across 5, 6 scored and 4 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, Toulouse FC have won 2, Le Havre AC 3, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 15 Feb 2026: Le Havre AC 2-1 Toulouse FC.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.99 goals in this fixture, above the Ligue 1 norm of 2.78, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Toulouse FC carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.60 against 1.39. Both teams to score sits at 61.4%, and over 2.5 goals at 57.4% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 41% |
| Draw | 27.1% |
| Le Havre AC win | 31.9% |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 12.6%, 2-1 at 8.9%, 1-2 at 7.8%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 73.7% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.0 against a league baseline of 3.7.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 63% confidence. First-half expected goals 0.99, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 59.5% confidence. Expected total goals 2.21, from 1.27 - 0.94 (Ligue 1 baseline 1.41 per side).
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 54.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.27 - 0.94, so the weaker attack still projects 0.94 goals.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Under 8.5 Corners — 51.5% confidence. Expected corners 8.7 against a league baseline of 9.6.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 46.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.27 - 0.94 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.41 per side; Toulouse FC rate 0.14 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 46.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.27 - 0.94 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.41 per side; Toulouse FC rate 0.14 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 41.1% confidence. Expected goals 0.99 before the break and 1.21 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 31.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.27 - 0.94, which projects a 47% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-1 — a Toulouse FC win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 8.9%.
Confidence: Low. The model puts a Toulouse FC win at 41%, with the draw at 27.1%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 12.6%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and on a fixture priced this close that is a live possibility.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
