1. FC Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.99 to 1.87 on expected goals, with 54.4% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
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FC Union Berlin host 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga, kicking off Sunday 1 November at 14:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.99 for the hosts and 1.87 for the visitors, a combined 2.86 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
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FC Köln are a clear favourite at 56.7%, with the draw back at 25.1%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
1. FC Union Berlin — last 7: D-D-W-L-L-L-D (most recent first). That is 6 scored and 18 conceded, 0.86 and 2.57 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 7, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-W-L-D across 4, 5 scored and 6 conceded.
1. FC Köln — last 7: D-L-W-L-D-L-W (most recent first). That is 8 scored and 11 conceded, 1.14 and 1.57 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 7, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-L across 3, 2 scored and 7 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.86 goals in this fixture, below the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
- FC Köln carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.87 against 0.99. Both teams to score sits at 54.4%, and over 2.5 goals at 54.4% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 18.2% |
| Draw | 25.1% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 56.7% |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 12%, 0-2 at 10.1%, 1-2 at 9.9%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 77.5% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.52, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 71.3% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.8 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 66% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57, so the weaker attack still projects 1.57 goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 64.3% confidence. Expected total goals 3.38, from 1.81 - 1.57 (Bundesliga baseline 1.57 per side).
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 61.3% confidence. Expected corners 9.8 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 45.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.52 before the break and 1.86 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 39% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.57 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 39% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.57 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 32.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57, which projects a 36% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-2 — an 1. FC Köln win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 10.1%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts an 1. FC Köln win at 56.7%, with the draw at 25.1%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 12%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
