PEC Zwolle vs SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.65 to 2.52 on expected goals, with 78.6% for over 2.5 goals in the Eredivisie.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
PEC Zwolle host SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 11 October at 12:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.65 for the hosts and 2.52 for the visitors, a combined 4.17 goals against a competition norm of 3.24.
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden are a clear favourite at 55.9%, with the draw back at 20.4%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
PEC Zwolle — last 10: L-L-D-L-W-L-L-L-L-W (most recent first). That is 9 scored and 25 conceded, 0.90 and 2.50 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-L-L-L-W across 5, 2 scored and 14 conceded.
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — last 10: D-W-D-L-L-L-L-W-L-L (most recent first). That is 15 scored and 25 conceded, 1.50 and 2.50 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-D-L-L-L across 5, 5 scored and 12 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 3, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 12 Feb 2022: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 3-4 PEC Zwolle.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 4.17 goals in this fixture, above the Eredivisie norm of 3.24, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.52 against 1.65. Both teams to score sits at 75.1%, and over 2.5 goals at 78.6% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 23.8% |
| Draw | 20.4% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 55.9% |
| Both teams to score | 75.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.6% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-2 at 8.1%, 1-1 at 7.3%, 1-3 at 6.8%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 82.9% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.72, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Under 2.5 Cards — 72.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 1.7 against a league baseline of 3.9.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 64.5% confidence. Expected total goals 3.83, from 2.67 - 1.17 (Eredivisie baseline 1.54 per side).
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 64.2% confidence. Expected corners 10.5 against a league baseline of 9.6.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 63.3% confidence. Expected goals 2.67 - 1.17 against a Eredivisie baseline of 1.54 per side; PEC Zwolle rate 0.69 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 63.3% confidence. Expected goals 2.67 - 1.17 against a Eredivisie baseline of 1.54 per side; PEC Zwolle rate 0.69 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 62.6% confidence. Expected goals 2.67 - 1.17, so the weaker attack still projects 1.17 goals.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 49.8% confidence. Expected goals 2.67 - 1.17, which projects a 31% chance of a level score at the break.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 47.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.72 before the break and 2.11 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-2 — an SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 8.1%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts an SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win at 55.9%, with the draw at 20.4%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
