US Lecce vs Bologna FC 1909 prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.01 to 0.88 on expected goals, with 29.5% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
US Lecce host Bologna FC 1909 in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 11 October at 13:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.01 for the hosts and 0.88 for the visitors, a combined 1.90 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
There is almost nothing between these two on the numbers, and the draw at 35.2% is a live outcome rather than a formality.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
US Lecce — last 10: L-W-L-L-W-W-W-L-W-D (most recent first). That is 11 scored and 14 conceded, 1.10 and 1.40 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-L-W-L-D across 5, 5 scored and 8 conceded.
Bologna FC 1909 — last 10: D-L-D-L-L-D-W-W-D-L (most recent first). That is 10 scored and 13 conceded, 1.00 and 1.30 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 3 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-W-W-L across 5, 4 scored and 6 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, US Lecce have won 0, Bologna FC 1909 3, with 3 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 12 Apr 2026: Bologna FC 1909 2-0 US Lecce.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 1.90 goals in this fixture, below the Serie A norm of 2.72, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
US Lecce carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.01 against 0.88. Both teams to score sits at 39.1%, and over 2.5 goals at 29.5% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 35.9% |
| Draw | 35.2% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 28.8% |
| Both teams to score | 39.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.5% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-0 at 16.7%, 1-1 at 15.2%, 1-0 at 13.5%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 64.5% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.5 against a league baseline of 3.7.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 61.6% confidence. Expected total goals 2.02, from 0.98 - 1.04 (Serie A baseline 1.34 per side).
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 59.4% confidence. First-half expected goals 0.91, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 55.4% confidence. Expected goals 0.98 - 1.04, so the weaker attack still projects 0.98 goals.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 54.7% confidence. Expected corners 9.2 against a league baseline of 8.8.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 39.9% confidence. Expected goals 0.91 before the break and 1.11 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 35.7% confidence. Expected goals 0.98 - 1.04 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; Bologna FC 1909 rate 0.17 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 35.6% confidence. Expected goals 0.98 - 1.04 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; Bologna FC 1909 rate 0.17 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 25.9% confidence. Expected goals 0.98 - 1.04, which projects a 49% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-0 — a US Lecce win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 13.5%.
Confidence: Low. The model puts a US Lecce win at 35.9%, with the draw at 35.2%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 0-0 at 16.7%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and on a fixture priced this close that is a live possibility.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
