CR Flamengo vs Fluminense FC prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 2.15 to 0.96 on expected goals, with 60% for over 2.5 goals in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
CR Flamengo host Fluminense FC in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A, kicking off Sunday 11 October at 20:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 2.15 for the hosts and 0.96 for the visitors, a combined 3.11 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
CR Flamengo are a clear favourite at 63.5%, with the draw back at 22%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
CR Flamengo — last 7: W-D-W-W-W-W-W (most recent first). That is 13 scored and 3 conceded, 1.86 and 0.43 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 7, and 3 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 4 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-D-W-W-W across 5, 10 scored and 3 conceded.
Fluminense FC — last 5: W-L-L-W-D (most recent first). That is 9 scored and 9 conceded, 1.80 and 1.80 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 5, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-L-L-D across 4, 8 scored and 9 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.11 goals in this fixture, above the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A norm of 2.70, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
CR Flamengo carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.15 against 0.96. Both teams to score sits at 55.6%, and over 2.5 goals at 60% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| CR Flamengo win | 63.5% |
| Draw | 22% |
| Fluminense FC win | 14.5% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 10.4%, 2-0 at 10.4%, 2-1 at 9.9%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 72.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.9 against a league baseline of 3.9. Fluminense FC: only 2 days since the last match.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 70.9% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.21, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Fluminense FC: only 2 days since the last match.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 58.4% confidence. Expected corners 9.6 against a league baseline of 9.6. Fluminense FC: only 2 days since the last match.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 51.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.19, so the weaker attack still projects 1.19 goals. Fluminense FC: only 2 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 50.8% confidence. Expected total goals 2.69, from 1.51 - 1.19 (Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline 1.40 per side). Fluminense FC: only 2 days since the last match.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 46.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.19 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.40 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Fluminense FC: only 2 days since the last match.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 46.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.19 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.40 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Fluminense FC: only 2 days since the last match.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 43.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.21 before the break and 1.48 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Fluminense FC: only 2 days since the last match.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 35.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.19, which projects a 42% chance of a level score at the break. Fluminense FC: only 2 days since the last match.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-0 — a CR Flamengo win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 10.4%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a CR Flamengo win at 63.5%, with the draw at 22%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 10.4%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
