RC Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante UD prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 2.43 to 1.13 on expected goals, with 69.1% for over 2.5 goals in the Primera Division.
712 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis Hide full analysis
Match Overview & What Is At Stake
RC Deportivo La Coruña host Levante UD in the Primera Division, kicking off Friday 16 October at 19:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 2.43 for the hosts and 1.13 for the visitors, a combined 3.56 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
RC Deportivo La Coruña are a clear favourite at 65.1%, with the draw back at 19.9%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
RC Deportivo La Coruña — last 10: D-L-D-W-W-D-D-L-L-D (most recent first). That is 13 scored and 14 conceded, 1.30 and 1.40 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-L-W-D-L across 5, 6 scored and 7 conceded.
Levante UD — last 10: L-L-D-W-D-L-L-W-W-W (most recent first). That is 17 scored and 18 conceded, 1.70 and 1.80 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-D-D-L-L across 5, 2 scored and 8 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, RC Deportivo La Coruña have won 2, Levante UD 0, with 4 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 27 Jan 2018: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2-2 Levante UD.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.56 goals in this fixture, above the Primera Division norm of 2.70, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
RC Deportivo La Coruña carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.43 against 1.13. Both teams to score sits at 62.7%, and over 2.5 goals at 69.1% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 65.1% |
| Draw | 19.9% |
| Levante UD win | 15% |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.1% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 2-1 at 9.5%, 1-1 at 8.8%, 2-0 at 8.4%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 76.8% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.4 against a league baseline of 4.4. Levante UD: only 4 days since the last match.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 71.1% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.16, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Levante UD: only 4 days since the last match.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 60.3% confidence. Expected corners 9.8 against a league baseline of 9.7. Levante UD: only 4 days since the last match.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 51% confidence. Expected goals 1.55 - 1.04 against a Primera Division baseline of 1.29 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Levante UD: only 4 days since the last match.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 51% confidence. Expected goals 1.55 - 1.04 against a Primera Division baseline of 1.29 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Levante UD: only 4 days since the last match.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 51% confidence. Expected goals 1.55 - 1.04, so the weaker attack still projects 1.04 goals. Levante UD: only 4 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 51% confidence. Expected total goals 2.59, from 1.55 - 1.04 (Primera Division baseline 1.29 per side). Levante UD: only 4 days since the last match.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 43.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.16 before the break and 1.42 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Levante UD: only 4 days since the last match.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 38.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.55 - 1.04, which projects a 42% chance of a level score at the break. Levante UD: only 4 days since the last match.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-1 — a RC Deportivo La Coruña win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 9.5%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a RC Deportivo La Coruña win at 65.1%, with the draw at 19.9%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
