SV Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 2.05 to 0.76 on expected goals, with 53.4% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
SV Werder Bremen host SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 17 October at 13:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 2.05 for the hosts and 0.76 for the visitors, a combined 2.82 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
SV Werder Bremen are a clear favourite at 66.1%, with the draw back at 22.2%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
SV Werder Bremen — last 10: D-W-D-W-L-L-L-L-D-W (most recent first). That is 15 scored and 18 conceded, 1.50 and 1.80 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-W-L-L-W across 5, 10 scored and 9 conceded.
SC Paderborn 07 — last 10: L-W-L-L-D-L-L-L-L-D (most recent first). That is 8 scored and 20 conceded, 0.80 and 2.00 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-D-L-L-D across 5, 3 scored and 8 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 4 meetings on record, SV Werder Bremen have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 1, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 13 Jun 2020: SC Paderborn 07 1-5 SV Werder Bremen.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.82 goals in this fixture, below the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
SV Werder Bremen carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.05 against 0.76. Both teams to score sits at 47.8%, and over 2.5 goals at 53.4% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 66.1% |
| Draw | 22.2% |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 11.7% |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 2-0 at 12.6%, 1-0 at 11.1%, 1-1 at 10.6%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 70% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.19, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 60.8% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.5 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 57.6% confidence. Expected corners 9.6 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 51.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.36, so the weaker attack still projects 1.28 goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 48.9% confidence. Expected total goals 2.65, from 1.28 - 1.36 (Bundesliga baseline 1.59 per side).
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 43.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.19 before the break and 1.46 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 38.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.36 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; SC Paderborn 07 rate 0.28 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 38.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.36 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; SC Paderborn 07 rate 0.28 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 30.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.28 - 1.36, which projects a 42% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-0 — a SV Werder Bremen win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 12.6%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a SV Werder Bremen win at 66.1%, with the draw at 22.2%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
