Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.32 to 3.06 on expected goals, with 81.2% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 17 October at 13:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.32 for the hosts and 3.06 for the visitors, a combined 4.38 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
VfB Stuttgart are a clear favourite at 71.6%, with the draw back at 15.7%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Hamburger SV — last 10: W-W-L-L-L-D-W-W-L-L (most recent first). That is 13 scored and 24 conceded, 1.30 and 2.40 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-L-W-L-D across 5, 7 scored and 11 conceded.
VfB Stuttgart — last 10: W-L-L-W-W-L-D-W-D-D (most recent first). That is 20 scored and 17 conceded, 2.00 and 1.70 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-L-L-D-D across 5, 9 scored and 12 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 3, VfB Stuttgart 2, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 12 Apr 2026: VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SV.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 4.38 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
VfB Stuttgart carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.06 against 1.32. Both teams to score sits at 70.5%, and over 2.5 goals at 81.2% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 12.7% |
| Draw | 15.7% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 71.6% |
| Both teams to score | 70.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81.2% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-3 at 7.9%, 1-2 at 7.8%, 0-3 at 6%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 80% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.56, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. VfB Stuttgart: only 3 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 77.1% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.4 against a league baseline of 3.8. VfB Stuttgart: only 3 days since the last match.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 65.4% confidence. Expected corners 10.8 against a league baseline of 9.8. VfB Stuttgart: only 3 days since the last match.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 62.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.33 - 2.15, so the weaker attack still projects 1.33 goals. VfB Stuttgart: only 3 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 62.1% confidence. Expected total goals 3.47, from 1.33 - 2.15 (Bundesliga baseline 1.59 per side). VfB Stuttgart: only 3 days since the last match.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 53.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.33 - 2.15 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; VfB Stuttgart rate 0.80 clear on the fitted ratings. VfB Stuttgart: only 3 days since the last match.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 53.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.33 - 2.15 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; VfB Stuttgart rate 0.80 clear on the fitted ratings. VfB Stuttgart: only 3 days since the last match.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 46.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 before the break and 1.91 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. VfB Stuttgart: only 3 days since the last match.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 44.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.33 - 2.15, which projects a 35% chance of a level score at the break. VfB Stuttgart: only 3 days since the last match.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-3 — an VfB Stuttgart win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 7.9%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an VfB Stuttgart win at 71.6%, with the draw at 15.7%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
