AS Roma vs Genoa CFC prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 3.62 to 0.31 on expected goals, with 75% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
682 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis Hide full analysis
Match Overview & What Is At Stake
AS Roma host Genoa CFC in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 17 October at 18:45 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 3.62 for the hosts and 0.31 for the visitors, a combined 3.92 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
AS Roma are a clear favourite at 93.7%, with the draw back at 5.4%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
AS Roma — last 10: D-D-W-D-W-W-W-W-W-W (most recent first). That is 22 scored and 6 conceded, 2.20 and 0.60 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 6 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-W-W-W-W across 5, 14 scored and 3 conceded.
Genoa CFC — last 10: W-L-D-L-L-L-L-L-D-D (most recent first). That is 6 scored and 14 conceded, 0.60 and 1.40 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-L-D-D across 5, 1 scored and 4 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 3, Genoa CFC 2, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 8 Mar 2026: Genoa CFC 2-1 AS Roma.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.92 goals in this fixture, above the Serie A norm of 2.72, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
AS Roma carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.62 against 0.31. Both teams to score sits at 26%, and over 2.5 goals at 75% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 93.7% |
| Draw | 5.4% |
| Genoa CFC win | 0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 3-0 at 15.6%, 4-0 at 14.1%, 2-0 at 13%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Match Winner: Home Win — 72.9% confidence. Expected goals 2.03 - 0.73 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; AS Roma rate 1.00 clear on the fitted ratings. AS Roma: only 3 days since the last match.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 72.9% confidence. Expected goals 2.03 - 0.73 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; AS Roma rate 1.00 clear on the fitted ratings. AS Roma: only 3 days since the last match.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 72.7% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.24, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. AS Roma: only 3 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 68% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.7 against a league baseline of 3.7. AS Roma: only 3 days since the last match.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 55.2% confidence. Expected goals 2.03 - 0.73, so the weaker attack still projects 0.73 goals. AS Roma: only 3 days since the last match.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 52.6% confidence. Expected goals 2.03 - 0.73, which projects a 38% chance of a level score at the break. AS Roma: only 3 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 52.2% confidence. Expected total goals 2.76, from 2.03 - 0.73 (Serie A baseline 1.34 per side). AS Roma: only 3 days since the last match.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Under 8.5 Corners — 51.4% confidence. Expected corners 8.6 against a league baseline of 8.8. AS Roma: only 3 days since the last match.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.24 before the break and 1.52 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. AS Roma: only 3 days since the last match.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 3-0 — a AS Roma win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 15.6%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a AS Roma win at 93.7%, with the draw at 5.4%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
